NZ Warriors 2025 Round 12 Review: Streak Ends in Auckland as Warriors Stumble Against Raiders

After their 16-12 victory over the Dolphins in Round 11, the Warriors returned home to Go Media Stadium for the first time since Round 7 to host the Raiders, who defeated the Titans 40-24 last round.

In a tough contest that reflected both teams' spots on the ladder, defence dominated as neither side showed much in attack. A try from Jamal Fogarty around the 60-minute mark proved the difference, ending the Warriors' winning streak with a 16-10 loss, their first defeat on New Zealand soil this season.

What Went Down

The opening stages had all the signs of a classic arm wrestle, and that’s exactly how the first half unfolded. The Warriors capitalised early when the Raiders turned down a gift two points from a penalty goal, forcing an error just two tackles into Canberra’s attacking set.

That defensive stand gave the home side momentum, which they used to march downfield and make no mistake when awarded a penalty of their own. Luke Metcalf calmly slotted the kick to give the Warriors a 2-0 lead after 15 minutes.

The back-and-forth battle continued until Roger Tuivasa-Sheck swung the momentum with a clever offload to Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who broke free for a 60-metre burst. Tuivasa-Sheck then finished what he started, steamrolling Xavier Savage to score the game’s first try in the 23rd minute. Metcalf’s conversion pushed the lead to 8-0.

Canberra’s woes deepened when Corey Horsburgh was sent to the sin bin for repeated team infringements. However, the Warriors couldn’t capitalise on the one-man advantage, committing two crucial errors during that stretch.

The missed opportunities opened the door for the Raiders, who struck back through a slick passage of play that sent Seb Kris through a gap. Kris linked with Tom Starling, who crossed under the posts in the 31st minute to close the gap to 8-6.

The Raiders controlled the momentum for the remainder of the half, but the Warriors looked poised to take their lead into the break after Nicoll-Klokstad smartly ushered the ball dead with 45 seconds left. That hope was dashed when Adam Pompey was caught offside on the dropout, gifting Canberra a penalty that allowed them to level the scores 8-8 heading into halftime.

Canberra came out firing in the second half with multiple opportunities to take control, but a series of uncharacteristically poor last-tackle options from Jamal Fogarty stalled their momentum. The Warriors capitalised through a seven-tackle set, earned after Jackson Ford was hit high. In slippery, wet conditions, they opted for the safe option—taking the penalty goal to edge ahead 10-8 in the 50th minute.

However, things quickly unravelled for the Warriors. Young back-rower Leka Halasima endured a nightmare outing, starting with a handling error in the very next set. This mistake contributed to a mounting penalty count, eventually sending Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to the sin bin for repeated infringements.

The Raiders made full use of their one-man advantage. A penalty goal levelled the scores before Joe Tapine fired a crisp short ball to Ata Mariota, who broke the line and unleashed a slick offload to Jamal Fogarty. The Canberra halfback stepped past Te Maire Martin to score in the 62nd minute, then converted his own try to give the Raiders a 16-10 lead with 15 minutes remaining.

The closing stages were chaotic, fitting for a contest between two desperate sides. Both teams successfully challenged referee decisions, botched restarts, and disputed advantage calls. Despite a wealth of possession and attacking field position, the Warriors couldn’t crack the Raiders’ resilient defence.

The match reached its climax in the final three minutes when Tom Starling was penalised for a late shot on Chanel Harris-Tavita. In what could be remembered as one of the worst challenges in NRL history, the Raiders failed to overturn the decision, and Starling was sent to the bin.

The Warriors came agonisingly close to levelling the scores, with Marata Niukore held up over the line in the 78th minute. But once again, handling errors proved costly. Halasima dropped the ball in the dying moments, sealing a frustrating 16-10 defeat for the home side.

The result sees the Raiders complete a 2025 season sweep over the Warriors, making it two wins from two in a rivalry that continues to intensify.

My Thoughts

Well, I came into this match nervous but confident, but unfortunately, the gritty performances we have grown used to just wasnt enough. Playing without both skippers was always going to be a tough ask, and while the other props did a commendable job on the day, there was a lack of punch and stability, and it disrupted what was already a clunky attack. This saw much of the attack reduced to just one out footy, which didn't trouble the Raiders' defence much. In a positive from the last time the Warriors faced the Raiders, there was improvement; rather than getting run off the park, the Warriors were able to drag Canberra into the grind, but the Raiders are a team that thrives in the grind, so it just didn't work. Discipline was an issue for the first time this season; it kept the Warriors on the back foot for vast stretches of the match, but to their credit, their goal-line defence stopped plenty of Raiders' attempts, and if the attack could have asked more questions, they could have extended that win streak, it just wasnt thier night.

Walking away from the stadium last night, I was disappointed, of course, but it is not all doom and gloom. The Warriors still remain a top-four side. They finally have their preferred backline together, and with Fisher-Harris and Barnett set to return this week, the team is primed for a bounceback. They just need to take the lessons they were given in this loss and get back to work.

There were a couple of things to smile about, which brings me to my positives.

Match Positives

The Warriors showed plenty of fight on their own try line. Their goal-line defence stood out on an otherwise frustrating night. The Raiders repeatedly attacked inside the red zone, but the Warriors dug in, turning away several sets with desperate, scrambling defence. Strong efforts from the middle forwards and smart reads out wide kept them in the game, especially in the first half, where they held firm under sustained pressure. The result didn’t go their way, but their toughness on the goal line was one of the few positives in a game that slipped from their grasp and is a vital part of their game that they must keep for the rest of the season.

The forward pack showed impressive toughness and depth, stepping up without co-captains James Fisher-Harris and Mitch Barnett. With both leaders out, players like Jackson Ford, Erin Clark, and Kurt Capewell rose to the occasion. They put in strong performances that helped keep the Warriors in the contest. Even though the team lost, the forwards stood out for their solid defence and hard work in the middle of the field. They definitely lacked the punch and leadership of Fisher-Harris and Barnett, but against a solid Raiders pack, they did not get bossed around.

Although it was a disappointing defeat, the team can learn many lessons from it. The tight score shows they were competitive but struggled in critical moments, especially with their attack and pressure handling. This game revealed areas to improve, like staying calm during tough moments, getting that discipline in check, keeping better control of the ball, and making the most of scoring chances. By focusing on these, the Warriors can improve their game and get into another winning run.

However, I did have concerns, which brings me to my negatives from the game.

Match Negatives

Their lack of respect for the ball manifested in a costly 14 errors throughout the game. These unforced mistakes disrupted their momentum and denied them crucial attacking opportunities, allowing the Raiders to control possession and dictate the pace. The Warriors’ inability to secure the ball under pressure not only stalled their offensive efforts but also put their defence under constant strain, ultimately tipping the balance in favour of the Raiders. This lack of ball security was a key factor in the narrow defeat and highlighted the need for greater discipline and focus moving forward.

The Warriors’ poor discipline hurt them. Giving away seven penalties interrupted their flow and gave the Raiders good field position and chances to attack. They also made three ruck infringements and three inside 10-metre penalties, which weakened their defence and let the Raiders keep the pressure on. These mistakes broke the Warriors’ rhythm and cost them important possession at crucial times, which ultimately turned the game in the Raiders’ favour.

The Warriors struggled to work together in attack, which hurt their chances of winning. The halves couldn’t create a strong attacking structure, which made it hard for the team to break through the Raiders’ defence or generate many scoring chances. This could have been because Fisher-Harris and Barnett weren’t playing up front, leaving the halves without the usual support to organise the attack. As a result, the Warriors couldn’t build the momentum they needed and fell short against a well-organised Raiders defence. If the Warriors want to become a serious finals threat, their attack will need to improve tenfold; they must find more consistency, creativity, and structure to challenge stronger opponents.

Warrior of the Match

My Warrior of the Match goes to Jackson Ford.

There was a lot of pressure on Ford to step up and deliver without the Captains, and I think he more than delivered. He led the Warriors in running metres, ending the match with 209m. He also tied for most tackles with 43 and only 3 misses. His renowned work ethic was on full display, and he further strengthened his case to remain a member of the gameday 17. He will never be an electric attacking weapon, but his consistency is valuable to the pack's overall performance. 

Warrior to Improve

My Warrior to improve goes to Leka Halasima.

It may be a bit harsh, as there were a few players I was debating selecting here, but this match was a night to forget for the Warriors' livewire forward. Had less impact than what we have grown accustomed to, but still ran for 109m; his issue was with his hands ending the night with 3 errors, he wasnt the only one who made that many errors but his ability to break through defensive lines and create opportunities out of nothing was something the Warriors really needed however he just couldnt get into the groove here. A down performance had to come at some point for Leka, but he appears to have a good head on his shoulders, and I'm confident that he will reach another level in no time.

Next Round Thoughts and Prediction

In Round 13, the Warriors head back across the ditch to face the Rabbitohs, who had a bye in Round 12.

As for the team I'd select, I wouldn't change much except bringing back James Fisher-Harris and Mitchell Barnett. I would bring them in for Te Maire Martin and Bunty Afoa, as Ford delivered more than Bunty, in my opinion. I think an extra forward on the bench is better suited against that Rabbitohs side than TTM would be.

The Rabbitohs have had an up-and-down 2025 season. They started strong under returning coach Wayne Bennett, with solid wins over teams like the Dolphins and Dragons. However, injuries to key players such as Cameron Murray have hurt their momentum. Their biggest issue has been defence, with heavy losses like a 32-0 defeat to the Bulldogs exposing some serious weaknesses.

They may also come into this match without Latrell Mitchell if Bennett decides not to make him back up after Origin.

For the Warriors to beat them, they’ll need to target those defensive lapses, especially out wide, and play with speed and intensity. Controlling the ruck and keeping pressure on Souths' defensive line will go a long way toward getting the win.

It will be tough, but if the Warriors get their discipline back on track, they should be on the right track, so I am picking a Warriors win by 8.

So, Round 12 was disappointing, and I will leave you with some questions as usual.

Who was your player to stand out?

What changes are you making to the 17?

Are you worried about the Warriors' struggling attack?

What is your score prediction against the Rabbitohs?