NZ Warriors 2025 Season Preview: The Start of a New Era or Just Another Rebuild?

We are finally here. The NRL is back, and the Warriors Round 1 Match is now just days away.

Over the past few weeks, I have discussed the five players who will stand out and improve in 2025. Now, I will examine the upcoming season and give my prediction on how the Warriors will fare. As I did last year, I will divide my preview into sections outlining my views on the preseason and trial results, my key signing, the 2025 squad, and my Gameday 17 before rounding it up with my 2025 ladder prediction.

As always, these are just my thoughts and opinions. I'm also interested in hearing yours, so let me know what you think, and let's chat some footy.

Preseason News: Fresh Changes Set to Shape 2025 Campaign

After the surprising success of 2023, my optimism for 2024 was through the roof, but after a disappointing year where the Warriors ended the year 13th, I come into 2025 with a more balanced outlook.

While the fans had time to switch off, the Warriors kept busy in the offseason, continuing to build and strengthen their pathways with their team involved in the Harold Matthews Cup, who are looking to defend their championship, Jersey Flegg, SG Ball and NSW Cup. They are also finalizing the roster for the NRLW squad's return to the NRLW competition with some great pickups, including Apii Nicholls and Black Fern Michaela Blyde, who I can't wait to see in a Warriors jersey. These sides are all internal in creating sustained success for the Warriors for years to come, and while we have already seen some young players stand out, I'm excited to see some new potential stars rise through the ranks.

We also had the unfortunate news of the immediate retirement of Tohu Harris after he struggled to recover from his wrist surgery. It's not how he or the fans wanted his career to end, but in sports, you are never guaranteed a fairytale finish. He is a massive loss to the squad both on and off the field; however, I'm sure his story with the Warriors is not over just yet and I expect him to play a part off the field once he has decided what direction he wants his life to go next.

The fan support continues to impress after becoming the first NRL team to sell out every home game last season, and you can bet the Warriors will be hoping for a repeat of that achievement this season. The crowd of 23,000 that showed up to the trial in Hamilton shows that the support has not waivered, so more sellouts are not out of reach. The team has to get results, of course, but if the fans continue to pack out any stadium they play in, it will make for an intimidating arena for their opposition, and I can't wait to be part of that atmosphere again.

The roster has had a few changes but I will keep that for my 2025 squad section below.

Lastly, let's talk about the trials.

The first preseason outing saw the Warriors head across the ditch to face the Sharks, where they battled to a 12-all draw. It was a rusty performance, which comes with the territory being the first hitout of the year. The injury to Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in the early stages took some sting out of the Warriors' attack, but we did get to see Luke Metcalf stake his claim as Shaun Johnson's successor, and he looked good showing off some of his kicking skills with a nice 40/20. The rest of the backs showed glimpses of what makes them dangerous, with the only disappointing efforts coming from Ed Kosi, who had a big case of the dropsies, and Te Maire Martin, who struggled to find his feet and disappeared in key moments.

The forwards impressed me. Mitch Barnett crashed and bashed like it was a regular-season game, and Erin Clark, Sam Healey, Jacob Laban, and Dylan Walker all showed more than enough. They should all play a part in the 2025 campaign. 

The errors and a few defensive lapses were concerns, but both can be quickly addressed and fixed as the team prepares for Las Vegas. Overall, it was a decent hitout to kick off 2025.

The Warriors wrapped up their final trial in style, cruising to a 36-10 victory over the Storm at FMG Stadium in Hamilton. Melbourne left their big guns at home, including coach Craig Bellamy, while the Warriors, fielding plenty of first-graders, took full advantage with a dominant first half, piling on 36 unanswered points.

After a scrappy performance the week before, the Warriors cleaned up their errors and looked sharp with the ball. The forwards dominated their inexperienced opposition, laying the platform for the backs to run riot. Both edges clicked into gear, with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Taine Tuaupiki each bagging doubles. Tuaupiki, in particular, did more than enough to hold down the wing spot until DWZ returns. Ali Leiataua was a powerhouse, also crossing twice and showcasing some slick hands to help set up Tuaupiki's tries, surely locking in his ticket to Vegas. Luke Metcalf impressed again with crisp passing and another pinpoint 40/20, forming a more dangerous combination with Chanel Harris-Tavita than what we saw with Te Maire Martin the previous week. However, with TMM slotting in at fullback this time, the Warriors had an extra playmaker on the field, making their attack even more potent.

The second half saw most of the big names take an early rest, and while the scoring dried up, the defence held firm, conceding just two tries.

It was a strong finish to the preseason, but with much tougher challenges ahead in Las Vegas, the Warriors will need to keep building and stay injury-free to have a successful 2025.

Key Signing: James Fisher-Harris

James Fisher-Harris stands out as the Warriors' pivotal signing for 2025, bringing a wealth of experience and a proven track record of success. Known for his bone-crunching defence and fierce presence in the middle of the park, he was instrumental in the Penrith Panthers' fourth consecutive premiership victory, showcasing his consistency and high-level performance. Throughout the season, Fisher-Harris maintained an impressive average of 128 running metres per game and executed 27 tackles per match, reflecting his dual-threat capability in both offence and defence. His defensive prowess is further highlighted by a remarkable 96% tackle efficiency, with only 26 missed tackles over 23 games. His experience as a multiple Premiership winner and a key figure in the New Zealand national side brings a championship pedigree that the Warriors will lean on in high-pressure moments. Fisher-Harris's ability to dominate the ruck, control the game's tempo, and intimidate opponents makes him invaluable on both sides of the ball. His return to New Zealand strengthens the Warriors' forward pack and brings a leader with a championship mindset, poised to mentor emerging talents and elevate the team's competitive edge in the upcoming season.

2025 Squad: New Faces, Same Vision

The Warriors saw six players exit after the 2024 season. Addin Fonua-Blake, Jazz Tevaga, Marcelo Montoya and Zyon Maiu'u all left to join other clubs, while Shaun Johnson and Tohu Harris announced their retirements. They also welcomed four players with the signings of James Fisher-Harris, Tanah Boyd, Erin Clark and Samuel Healey.

The Warriors head into the 2025 season with a squad that retains its core strength but still faces some questions about depth. The spine will be pivotal, with Luke Metcalf and either Te Maire Martin or Chanel Harris-Tavita expected to lead the attack. Their ability to control the tempo and create opportunities will be crucial for maintaining consistency throughout the season. Wayde Egan will again play a key role, providing the halves with time and space to unlock the potential of the backline. The addition of Tannah Boyd and Sam Healey offers valuable depth in case injuries strike.

In the backline, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Ali Leiataua, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak bring plenty of strike power, though depth is a concern. Beyond the starting group, reliable options are limited, meaning injuries or form slumps could test the squad's resilience. 

The forward pack remains a major strength, offering both power and defensive solidity in the middle. James Fisher-Harris and Mitch Barnett must set the platform and lead the way. Young talents like Jacob Laban, Demitric Vaimauga, and Leka Halasima may need to be leaned on, but their lack of NRL experience could present challenges over a long season.

If the squad stays healthy and combinations click early, the Warriors have the potential to make a deep run into the finals.

My Round One 17 has changed significantly from my initial selection before the trials. Some changes are due to injuries, while others are based on player performances across the two matches. The outside backs were straightforward choices. I've kept Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback, just like last season. On the wings, I've gone with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Taine Tuaupiki. RTS looks more comfortable in that role, and with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak out injured, Tuaupiki is the next best option and deserves a spot in the 17. For the centres, I've selected Ali Leiatua and Adam Pompey. Ali impressed me during the trials, and Pompey is the best healthy option to partner with him. In the halves, I'm running with Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita. I had doubts about Metcalf at halfback, but he showed significant progress in the trials and earned the spot. I chose CHT as his partner because they looked the most threatening combination during the trials, with Te Maire Martin still struggling to stay locked into games.

The forward pack pretty much selects itself. My starting front row features James Fisher-Harris, Wayde Egan, and Mitch Barnett, no surprises there. In the second row, I've got Marata Niukore and Kurt Capewell. While they didn't stand out during the trials, their experience could be vital in setting the right tone for the 2025 season. Erin Clark takes the lock position; he impressed me in the trials and looks like a solid choice to start in that role.

The bench was a tough call with so many options to choose from, but here's how I've lined it up. I've chosen Sam Healey as my bench hooker since we're used to Egan not lasting the full 80 minutes, and Healey showed plenty of promise in the trials. Dylan Walker is next, and I'd bring him on at lock around the 20-minute mark. I've gone with Demitric Vaimauga and Bunty Afoa as my bench props. Demitric hit the ground running in the trials and seems primed for a big season, while Bunty impressed me with his fitness and looks ready to fight for a regular first-grade spot. Some first-grade worthy players, including Jacob Laban, Leka Halasima, and Jackson Ford, miss out, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Laban named in the 17.

My 2025 Prediction

Continuing my season preview trend, I was wrong with my prediction last season when I said the Warriors would finish fourth and reach their third-ever Grand Final.

It's a mixed bag across the ditch with the NRL Pundits; some believe the Warriors can return to the finals, while others predict the Warriors to be Wooden Spoon contenders.

Given the squad's changes and my concerns about depth, I'm less confident about the 2025 season than I was about 2024.

The Warriors have a relatively favourable draw against the NRL's heavyweights in 2025, facing Penrith, Melbourne, and the Roosters only once while avoiding a double clash with the Rabbitohs. Among the teams they play twice, only Newcastle and Manly made the top eight last season, though they will have to contend with a Broncos side expected to be strong in 2025. Travel-wise, they dodge the tough trips to Townsville and Canberra, and after opening the season in Las Vegas, they benefit from back-to-back home games at Mt Smart to settle in.

 

However, the first half of the season will test their resilience. They have just four home games at Mt Smart, all against formidable opponents (Sea Eagles, Roosters, Broncos, and Raiders). They also travel to Melbourne, Wollongong, and Campbelltown, plus a clash with the Rabbitohs in Sydney. On the upside, they get two trips to Suncorp, where they'll enjoy strong Kiwi support, and they will be tough to beat in Christchurch on Anzac Day. 

If they can navigate this stretch successfully, the back half of the season offers six matches in Auckland, including winnable fixtures against the Titans, Dragons, and Eels. A particularly gruelling period looms between late April and the end of May, when the Warriors embark on four consecutive road games, Christchurch, Brisbane, Wollongong, and back to Brisbane, to face the Knights, Broncos, Dragons, and Dolphins. With the team set to travel approximately 75,000km over the season, three times the NRL average, this stretch will be especially taxing.

The scheduling of byes isn't ideal. The first comes early, after just four games, following the Las Vegas opener, two home fixtures, and a trip to play the Tigers. The next two are squeezed into a four-week window in mid-June and mid-July, during the State of Origin period, typically a crucial time for the Warriors to build momentum. This setup also leaves them with an unbroken nine-game run to close out the season.

If the Warriors can pick up a few wins in the first ten weeks, stay injury-free, and build momentum with a strong run at the back end of the season, especially in those winnable home games, they have a real shot at returning to finals football. 

That said, this season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent years, making predictions difficult. I've had a tenth-place finish in mind for the Warriors for months, and I'm sticking with my gut. While they have the potential to improve and push for a finals spot, so do many other teams. Plus, I don't see many of last year's top-eight sides dropping out.

So, my prediction for 2025? Tenth place

What I want to see from this team is simple: with the roster changes this year, it feels like a reset. I want to see them build new combinations and push teams to their limits. Last season, 8 of their 14 losses were by less than two tries. They'll climb up the ladder if they can turn those close losses into wins.

So, let's bring on the season. The Warriors begin their new chapter on the big stage in Las Vegas, taking on the Raiders. While my expectations aren't as high as they were for 2024, anything is possible if the team stays fit.

Once again, I will be writing weekly game reviews and releasing them every Monday throughout the season. I will also attend all the Warriors games at Mt Smart, so if you are there, come say hi.

I'm also continuing to host my show, The Stand-Off, on New Zealand Sport Radio with my good friend Richie every Wednesday night at 8pm NZ time, so come join us there as we discuss everything going on in League and answer your questions live. I am sure that I will still be joining several other podcasts that work on Warriors content throughout the year, so be sure to keep an eye or ear out for me on all platforms.

If you like what I do here, please share my blog with your friends and comment on how you think the season will go.

So that's my take on the Warriors' upcoming season, and I just can't wait for Round One. As usual, I will leave you with some questions.

What position would you be putting RTS this season?
Which player do you think will be the standout performer?
Who would be in your gameday 17?
Where do you think the Warriors will finish in 2025?