NZ Warriors 2024 Mid-Season Review: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

With the Warriors enjoying their first bye of the Season in Round 13, I have no match review to write, so instead, it was the best time to write my mid-season review.

I came into the 2024 season filled with optimism, I predicted the Warriors would start well, and by the time they reached their Magic Round match against the Panthers, they would have a 7-3 record, which I got very wrong as, in fact, they were 3-1-6 and looking a shell of their 2023 counterparts and my optimism had taken a stumble, then back-to-back wins over the Panthers and Dolphins got the Warriors back on track. The Warriors currently sit in 13th place with 13 points and a -3 points differential. The season is very tight, with the Warriors only 1 point out of the top eight, 3 points out of the top 4, and 5 points ahead of the 17th-placed Rabbitohs.

Unlike last season, playing away from home is having more of an impact. The Warriors have a 4-1-2 home record and a 1-4 away record, although one of those home wins was at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The Warriors let slip some of those games on both sides of the Tasman, which could have seen them cement a spot higher up the ladder, but hopefully, those defeats will prove vital lessons as the Warriors turn their focus to the second half of the season.

Keeping in theme, I started a few seasons back; I'm going to break my review into what's been good, what's been bad, and what has been downright ugly before summing it all up, looking at the second half of the Season, updating my player of the year tally, and predicting the Cowboys match in Round 14.

So, let's just get into it.

The Good

Let's start with the next man up, the mantra that Andrew Webster spoke about at length when he took the helm last season. It sounds like a cliche, but despite a heavy injury toll, the Warriors have remained competitive, including their upset wins in rounds 11 and 12 with a severely depleted team. It is a true display of this side's heart and dedication to the game plan that anyone can step up, slot into any position, and deliver a commendable performance. And while it is not ideal to have to rely on the second-string and sometimes third-string players in the squad, we can move forward knowing that the Warriors are always a fighter chance regardless of the 17 that run out on the field and it at least provides some gameday experience if those players have to be called on if the Warriors make the finals.

The pathways are also showing promise, with all the Warriors teams performing well in the lower grades, including the Harold Matts side winning the competition in their first season; this is great for the Warriors' future as there appears to be plenty of talent sitting under Webster's learning tree now, and a healthy pathway is the best way to ensure long-term success.

I just mentioned the next step-up mentality working well, and that comes down to Andrew Webster's system; he has a system in place that the squad are responding to, and while they have suffered several losses, there have not been a lot of blowouts which shows that the gameplan is there and with just a bit of fine-tuning and luck the Warriors will be able to win more than they lose and that really is the key. If a few things click, I expect a very successful second half of the season.

Lastly, the sell-out crowds at Mount Smart. The club is currently on track to be the first NRL side to sell out every home game. As a season member for the past 19 years, I have sat through plenty of games at Mt Smart with tiny crowds, so to see the people flock to games now has been amazing; a packed-out Mt Smart is incredible to witness and is intimidating for visiting sides giving the Warriors an edge, and if the fans keep showing up the Warriors can really make some waves in the competition. 

So far, my game of the year was the Warrior's Magic Round 22-20 victory over the Panthers. It could have easily gone to the Dolphins win a week later, but I had to go with the win over the reigning premiers. I went into the match only hoping that the makeshift Warriors could remain competitive and lose by a close margin, but they showed heart and determination and, against the odds, delivered a fantastic display that was a well-timed confidence booster not only for the squad but for the fans also and was the perfect opportunity to show everyone that they have what it takes to turn their season around. 

The Bad

The Warriors have let a few games slip this year; they could have been a top-four side right now if they iced some opportunities in their losses in Round 1 against the Sharks, Round 2 against the Storm, Round 8 against the Titans and then their Golden Point draw against the Sea Eagles in Round 6. I've selected these matches as I believe they had enough chances to get the job done. However, while they did not get those points, they have gained valuable lessons that have seen them improve and if they continue to improve each week and climb up that ladder.

The Warrior's attack has been a bit onenote for most of the season, with the Warriors focussed on sending everything out to the right, which has been easily defused by the opposition; the kicking game has consisted of kicking deep to the right and applying pressure while it worked well last year it has not been as successful this season. In the past two weeks, the Warriors have executed a more balanced attack, striking the left, middle, and right more evenly, making it more challenging to defend. It's the way they have to continue to play, which is the big question mark around this side after the bye; when all the regular players return, will they keep this attack or regress back to what wasnt working earlier? 

Lastly, I have been vocal about my dislike of Webster's bench use all season. It is another thing that has improved in the past fortnight, but at times, he either leaves players on for too long or only gives the bench players a little time on the pitch. It can be a tricky aspect of the game to nail, but I would like to see 2 or 3 interchanges in the first half; give your prop interchanges 20 minutes to see the big guns like Addin Fonua-Blake get some energy back into their legs. With all the players returning, we may see the interchanges improve, as perhaps Webster is being cautious with the young players who have had to fill in. 

My bad match of the year was the Warriors 27-24 ANZAC Day defeat to the Titans. The first ANZAC day clash on home soil since 2015 did not live up to the expectations that I had set. The Warriors started strong but then regressed and let the Titans take over, the team lacked urgency, struggled with their defence and looked out of ideas with the ball in hand, and the life was sucked out of the crowd until Zyon Maiu'u entered the game, which saw the Warriors pick things up, but it was too little too late. 

And now all that's left is the ugly.

The Ugly

Injuries have been the biggest issue for the Warriors this season, as several key figures have been out for extended periods. NRL Physio provided a stat this week on the approximate number of games missed due to injury by top squad players, and the Warriors sit at the top with 73 missed games. Currently, the Warriors have 10 players out with injury, with most due back this week, but vital cogs to the Warriors campaign like Shaun Johnson, Wayde Egan, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad,  Kurt Capewell, Tohu Harris, Luke Metcalf, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Marata Niukore have all spent time on the sidelines and there are many more. To their credit, the Warriors have not made excuses, and as I have already mentioned, the players that have had to step up have done an admiral job. With the injured Warriors starting to return after this week's bye, I have my fingers crossed that the Warrior's bad luck stops and we begin to see the same 17 get to play together and work on their combinations as they work towards getting themselves in the top eight.

My last ugly is the Addin Fonua-Blake situation that happened recently. The star front-rower was stood down after not being involved in the coach's address and team song after the Panthers' win. Rumours of an early exit were everywhere, but as of yet, there have been no developments on that front, and I am optimistic that AFB will remain with the Warriors until the end of the season. He has been one of the club's best performers this season. I want to see him end his Warriors career on a high, so hopefully, all the drama has been dealt with. Still, full credit to Andrew Webster for his decision to stand AFB down; it's essential to have standards for your squad and no player, regardless of how important they are, should be above them. 

My ugly match of 2024 was the 38-18 Round 10 defeat to the Roosters. 

This was one of only two blowouts that the Warriors have had this season, and while the Roosters have put together some good performances, the first 20 minutes of this match were embarrassing to watch with less than stellar defence and no answers on attack. The Warriors looked like a NSW Cup team, and while they did stem the flow and look competitive for the final 60 minutes, the match was already over. Putting a positive spin on it, this match may have been the wake-up call the side needed, as they have turned a corner and looked much better since this loss.

The Season so far and what's next

Overall, I am okay with the season to date, albeit that has lifted with the past two wins, as before that, I was very disappointed. Sitting at 13th isn't great, but with how close the ladder is, if they string a few wins together, they can climb that ladder quickly.

There is still plenty for the squad to work on, but they have improved, so I'm confident that they will continue to trend upwards, and with their injured players returning, they have a good chance of racking up the competition points during the Origin period. They have two byes and 12 games remaining, and looking over those 12 matches, only five are at Home, and six are against the current top-eight sides. We have seen plenty of upsets, but out of those 12 remaining games, they all look winnable, with the hardest being matches against the Storm, Broncos and Sharks.

As I have mentioned several times, the NRL ladder is tight, and a few more poor performances could really derail the Warrior's finals chances; however, this year's squad has shown a lot of heart and has proved recently that they are game to defy the odds, so I think they have a great shot at ending the season in the finals series for the second year in a row. And once they get to the finals, they could rattle a few teams, so the sky is truly the limit in 2024. I'm not going to say that they can go all the way and win their first premiership right now, but if they battle every week and start getting runs on the board, then they have a shot. The biggest criticism against the 2023 Warriors was their inability to defeat any top-four sides, and so far this season, they have beaten two of them (Panthers and Dolphins) and narrowly lost to the other two (Sharks and Storm), so anything is possible in my eyes.

Update on Brad's Player of the Year Standings

After every match, I have been rating the top three Warriors with a Dally M 3,2,1 points system; I have been slack in sharing the updates this season, so I will include the update here.

Twelve players have received points so far this season, and below are the top five scorers. Addin Fonua-Blake currently sits at the top with a massive lead. The players with points who didn't make the top five in the image below are Te Maire Martin with 4 points, Rocco Berry and Roger Tuivasa Sheck with 3 points, and Taine Tuaupiki with 2 points.

On the other hand, I also keep track of the players I pick each week who need to improve. We have had seven players make that list, with Jackson Ford and Marcelo Montoya leading with two selections each. The rest, with only one selection so far, are Tom Ale, Jazz Tevaga, Dallin Watene-Zeleaniak, Freddy Lussick, and Edward Kosi. I have also had a no-player selected to improve three times this season.

Next Rounds' Thoughts and Prediction

Round 14 sees the Warriors return across the ditch to face the Cowboys, who defeated the Roosters 18-16 in Round 13.

Regarding the team I would pick, based on the NRL Casualty report, Rocco Berry, Kurt Capewell, Wayde Egan, Addin Fonua-Blake, Tohu Harris, Shaun Johnson, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, and Taine Tuaupiki are all meant to return. 

This makes it a bit tough to pick my 17, but I would bring CNK and Berry back into the backline. SJ returns in the halves, and I would keep TMM, as I think his recent form gives him the first shot at the 6 jersey. 

In the forwards, AFB and Egan return to the front row, and I would move Tohu Harris up front also; Jackson Ford and Kurt Capewell are my second row, with Dylan Walker at lock. My bench would be Chanel Harris-Tavita, Jazz Tevaga, Marata Niukore and Tom Ale. I have left Mitchell Barnett out due to him perhaps playing Origin. If he doesn't and is free to play, I would drop Tom Ale out.

The Cowboys have been a real up-and-down side, winning games you don't expect while also losing games no one predicted either, which makes them a hard team to predict, especially when they may have a fair amount of players rested due to playing origin. If the Warriors bring the same style and attack that they have delivered the past two weeks with the inclusion of some more strike power from the returning stars, then they should be in the driver's seat to get the win. If they get the momentum rolling with the forwards and don't restrict their attack to one edge, they should walk away victors. I'm confident that the side has taken note of the past couple of wins, so I am going with the Warriors to get their third win in a row by 12.

So that was my mid-season review, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Who has been your player of the year to date?

Who is your player that needs to improve the most?

Where do you see the Warriors finishing on the ladder?

What are your best and worst games for the Season so far?

What is your score prediction against the Cowboys?