NZ Warriors 2024 Round 20 Review: Warriors Stunned by Raiders, Season Left on Life Support

 After their Round 19 bye, the Warriors made the journey to Canberra to face the Raiders. With the season on the line for both sides, there was plenty to play for, but a less-than-stellar first half put the Warriors on the back foot, and despite showing signs of life in the second half, it was not enough as the Raiders got the job done with a 20-18 victory.

What Went Down

The Raiders started strong, with Jamal Fogarty making an impact early; his second bomb of the game forced Taine Tuaupiki to fumble, giving the Raiders prime position in the Warrior's Red Zone. Hudson Young wasted little time as he took advantage of some spotty Warriors goal-line defence to crash over in the 6th minute. The Warriors attempted to respond but faltered, conceding back-to-back penalties. Fogarty exploited the space up the middle, connecting with Young, who scored his second try at the 10-minute mark. Around the 13th minute, the Warriors suffered a setback as Tuaupiki left the game with a Category 1 HIA, forcing a back-three reshuffle for the second match in a row. The Warriors had plenty of possession but struggled to mount a threatening attack. Fogarty's precise kicking continued to trouble the Warriors' back three, with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak knocking on and giving the Raiders excellent field position moments later a penalty for stripping that the Warriors unsuccessfully used their Captains Challenge on led to a successful penalty goal by Fogarty, extending the home sides leader to 14-0 at the 18-minute mark. The following 20 minutes saw both sides trading errors; the Warriors had a few opportunities but struggled with their execution and decision-making near the try line, but after forcing a mistake by Tom Starling and getting a six-again call, the visitors built some momentum and finally cracked the Raiders line when Roger Tuivasa-Sheck spied a hole and went over in the 37th minute to see the Warriors go into the sheds trailing 14-6 albeit with another injury as Adam Pompey was carried off with a knee injury forcing more shuffling of the backline.

The Warriors came out strong in the second half, with Dylan Walker making a significant break off the kick-off, unsettling the Raiders. A high ball from the Warriors forced Fogarty into an error near the try-line. Kurt Capewell, fresh from Origin Three, capitalised, scoring in the corner in the 46th minute, bringing the Warriors back into the contest. After trading a few sets, the Raiders got themselves deep into the Warriors' half but squandered their chance. A scrum feed and a six-again call gave the Warriors' momentum, and Mitch Barnett, backing up from the NSW Origin series win, powered over the line, levelling the scores 14 all at the 60-minute mark. Fatigue was starting to set in for the Warriors, playing with a two-man bench, and the Raiders took advantage, pushing a kick over the try-line and Xavier Savage beating some lacklustre Warriors chasers to score in the 70th minute to regain the lead. The Warriors didn't drop their heads and responded with a successful short kick-off, catching the Raiders off guard. A few plays later, Addin Fonua-Blake barges his way over the line in the 72nd minute, reigniting hope for a Warriors comeback; Chanel Harris-Tavita had a chance to level the scores and potentially force the game into Golden Point but missed the crucial kick (he was 0-3 in the match) and with time running out the Raiders did just enough to secure the 20-18 win with the Warriors now in a do or die situation to make the finals.

My Thoughts

Well, that was another game the Warriors let slip. It feels like something I have said far too many times this season. Another slow start that made their job so much harder than it really needed to be, the forwards did what they are paid for and won the battle in the middle, but despite that, the attack was clunky and disorganised. They managed to piece things together better in the second half and make a match of it, but confidence was low, with many of the players not backing themselves up to make the big plays that were needed. In addition, the injuries to Taine Tuaupiki and Adam Pompey continued the Warriors' lousy luck in the injury department. It just felt like everything that could go wrong did, which was highlighted in Chanel Harris-Tavita's shocking night at the kicking tee (however, the amount of abuse the poor kid is getting online is way over the line). The team is down on luck and confidence and appears to be out of time to make a finals run. They still have a mathematical chance, but even my ever-present optimism in this club is running out. 

There were a few things to smile about, which brings me to my positives.

Match Positives

It was another big night from the pack against a pretty big Raiders pack. I thought the Warriors won this battle, with five of the pack hitting the triple digits: Addin Fonua-Blake (198m), Mitchell Barnett (159m), Dylan Walker (154m), Kurt Capewell (138m), and Jackson Ford (107m). The Warriors got into good field position, but unfortunately, the team couldn't convert that hard work into points. It will be hard for them as a unit to see their hard work getting wasted by the halves and backs, but if the Warriors want to start winning again, they just have to keep doing the hard yards up front and hope like hell the halves get back on track.

Trailing 14-0 after only 18 minutes put the Warriors under plenty of pressure, but to their credit, they didn't drop their heads and kept fighting and got themselves into the contest. As I already mentioned, this team is low on confidence, but to keep fighting is a good sign; I know there isn't a lot going right for them right now, but if they can keep this never-say-die attitude and improve in a few other areas they can swing things back in thier favor.

It's another week down, which means we are a week closer to some of the injured players' return dates; Shaun Johnson, Luke Metcalf, Rocco Berry and Marcelo Montoya could all be beneficial additions to this team right now. 

However, I had plenty of concerns, which brings me to my negatives from the game.

Match Negatives

I praised the Warriors' fight back, but that slow start set the tone for this contest; the Warriors needed to hit the ground running, especially with the season on the line, but they were found napping. Now, this isn't a new trend, as the Warriors of 2023 were slow starters, too, but the coaching staff need to figure out how to get this side to bust out of the gates early, as it is a lot easier to lead from the front instead of chasing games every week.

The Warriors' attack was poor and lacked cohesion; I know the changes to the backs did not help matters, but the halves looked out of ideas at times, and the game plan felt a little CHT-heavy; I don't know if that was by design or if TMM wasn't calling for the ball as much as he should have but I would have like to see him take control and for both halves to add some dimension to their kicking game, throw in a few grubbers, force repeat sets and build pressure. Hopefully, we see a bit more of that this week.

The Warriors' errors and discipline let them down in this match, with the attack struggling. Making 10 errors, giving away 5 penalties, and committing 3 ruck infringements just made their comeback attempt that much harder. They were just silly coach killers where the players tried to force things to happen when they weren't on, and you just can't do that in the NRL; they need to take a breath and reduce those 50/50 plays as they are not good enough right now to be playing all loosey-goosey.

Warrior of the Match

My Warrior of the Match goes to Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.

There wasn't much to praise about the Warriors' attack, but almost all of the good things we saw involved RTS; he did his best to try to swing momentum in the Warriors' favour, leading the side with 255 running metres and being the only Warriors back to make a line break. He defused plenty of the Raider's big kicks when he was moved to fullback; 

He never gave up and did plenty of hard work getting the Warriors out of their own end and will most likely have the chance to do it all again from Fullback in Round 21.

My only nitpick was his slow chase to the loose ball that Savage dived on; it looked like some miscommunication between him and Ali Leiataua, but as the experienced player, he should have ensured that the ball was knocked over the dead ball line. 

Warrior to Improve

My Warrior to improve Te Maire Martin.

I know many will have gone with Chanel Harris-Tavita here, but besides the poor night at the kicking tee, I thought CHT was solid enough. I have gone with TMM because he was pretty quiet; he did play a part in two of the Warriors' tries, but he was not the dominant half, with CHT doing most of the kicking; I'm not sure if he had a niggle or if this was a gameplan but when we have seen TMM play his best this season it has been when he was in charge. There were times when he could have utilised his grubber kick but just didn't use it. He just didn't make the best choices with the ball in hand and seems to be regressing; with Shaun Johnsons' return just around the corner, he is making Andrew Webster's job easy when it comes picking between the two.

Next Round Thoughts and Prediction

The Warriors return home to host the Wests Tigers, who lost 42-28 to the Rabbitohs in Round 20.

Regarding the team I would pick, Taine Tuaupiki will be out after his failed HIA, and I am assuming Adam Pompey will not be available either. I don't know if Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad or Marcelo Montoya will be ready to return, but if they are, they come back in. If not, RTS stays at fullback, and Moala Graham-Taufa and either Ed Kosi or Setu Tu come in. I would keep the rest of the team the same unless other injured players are ready to return.

The Tigers have been one step forward and three steps back this season. They have had a few good wins surrounded by plenty of disappointing performances, but you can never take them lightly, especially considering how the Warriors have been tracking this season.

The Warriors just need to go back to the basics, reduce the errors, dominate the middle and get the backs into space to create scoring opportunities. If they can do that, I think they will win comfortably, so I am going for a Warriors win by 18.

So, that was a demoralising Round 20, but as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Is the Warriors' season over now?

What changes would you make to the Warrior's attacking game plan?

Who would you bring in to replace Pompey?

What is your score prediction against the Tigers?