NZ Warriors 2024 Season Preview: After 2023 do we Dare to Dream that this is the Year?

We are finally here. The NRL is back, and the Warriors Round 1 Match is now just days away.

This also means it's time for me to dust off the keyboard and get back into writing, so I will start the season with my prediction on how I see the Warriors going in 2024. As I did last year, I will break down my preview into sections outlining my views on the preseason and trial results, my key signing, the 2024 squad and my Gameday 17 before rounding it up with my 2024 ladder prediction.

As always, these are just my thoughts and opinions, and I'm interested in hearing your thoughts, too, so let me know what you think, and let's chat some footy.

Preseason News: The Weight of Expectation

After several years of coming into the season with less-than-optimistic thoughts, the 2024 season feels different. 

After an outstanding 2023 season that exceeded my expectations, the Warriors were just one game away from the Grand Final. They showed that they had improved tenfold but still needed some fine-tuning to be considered a premiership contender. Now, the Warriors come into 2024 with only a few changes on and off the pitch, which provides a steady platform for Andrew Webster's second year at the helm.

Off the field, the Warriors have been busy; with the exit of Assistant Coach Justin Morgan, they announced the promotion of Slade Griffin. Replacing Griffin as NSW Cup coach is David Tangata-Toa. They also officially launched their pathways with teams now involved in the Harold Matthews Cup, Jersey Flegg Cup, and the already-running SG Ball and NSW Cup sides. Shows that the Warriors are preparing for the future, which is essential for continued success, which is what we all want as Warriors fans. 

It is early days, of course, but with the development of some of the players from SG Ball last year, I am excited to see the new names that grow through the ranks.

The fan support was incredible last year and has not slowed down; the Warriors won the Halberg Award for New Zealand's favourite sporting moment of 2023 with their comeback win over the Sharks; this was an award decided by the public and further showed the support this club has gathered. We saw more proof of that with crowds of 14,000 and more at both trials and news of sellout games in Christchurch and Go Media stadium for the early rounds of the season weeks before the season starts.

We also saw the release of the Warriors 2023 Heritage Jersey, which proved popular as it sold out in 18 minutes.

The team has to get results on the pitch, of course, but if the fans show their support and get to the stadiums, it will make for an intimidating arena for the opposition, and I'm looking forward to being part of that atmosphere.

The roster hasn't changed as much as last year, but there have been some notable additions. I will keep that for my 2024 squad section below, however.

Lastly, let's talk about the trials.

The first preseason outing saw the Warriors travel to Apollo Projects Stadium in Christchurch, where they went down 18-16 against the West Tigers.

This was a good hit out; plenty of the young players had a chance to shine, and the forwards had a challenge against a near full-strength Tigers. Losing Zyon Maiu'u at the 20-minute mark via a red card saw the Warriors play the remaining hour with only 12 men, which didn't help with assessing the team, but I liked the fight and defensive structure while being a man down. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck impressed with a solid outing with some nice runs and big defensive stops.

They kept their errors down and showed some nice moments with the ball in hand, almost stealing a win in the dying stages. 

Despite the loss, it was a good match, highlighting the talent in the young players just waiting for a chance to crack in first grade.

The final trial saw the Warriors return home to Go Media Stadium, where they defeated the Dolphins 34-22.

With almost all the big names back, this was our best chance to see how all the pieces would link together, and there was a lot to like; the inclusion of RTS on the left has increased the attacking potency on that edge, which means with the massive threat still existing on the right, the Warriors will keep plenty of defences guessing which is precisely what they need to do.

The pack were busy creating the platform for Shaun Johnson and Luke Metcalf to put players into space, there will still a few moments of mistimes passes but after few games together I am sure that cohesion will come. However, the Warriors still looked lethal, even with a few errors, attacking almost at will.

Defensively, they were sound, only missing 11, but there is always room for improvement.

Overall, it was an excellent way for the Warriors to end the preseason. The 2023 players still looked to be in the same form as last season, and Capewell and RTS have slotted in like they have always been there; Webster has already proven to know how to get these players performing, so I am expecting another step up from everyone in the roster which will make them a must-watch team.

Key Signing: Kurt Capewell

With the return of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, he looked like the surefire selection for this section, but then the Warriors announced the signing of Kurt Capewell.

We all know RTS will crush it, but the addition of Capewell could be just what the Warriors need.

He brings plenty of experience from his past four seasons at the Panthers and Broncos, including appearing in three Grand Finals. In 2023, he averaged 84 metres and 30 tackles a game, which may not be the most prolific statistics, but as we got to see in the second trial, a lot of Capewell's upside comes from what he is doing on the field when he is not holding the ball, he always manages to be exactly where the team needs him, which should prove to be a tremendous benefit to the Warriors 2024 campaign.
He is a bonafide winner and is exactly the type of player the Warriors need to help guide the young forwards within the club as they prepare for their first-grade opportunities. He is an excellent addition to the club, and I look forward to watching him help make this team a serious contender.

2024 Squad: Return of the Hot Stepper

The Warriors saw five players exit after the 2023 season, with Josh Curran, Bayley Sironen, Viliami Vailea. Brayden Wiliame and Ronald Volkman all leave. With a relatively balanced roster, the Warriors only added three players, Kurt Capewell and the returning Chanel Harris-Tavita and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.

The Warrior's depth is at an all-time high, with several seasoned players likely to miss out on regular first-grade football, and if the trials were anything to go by, quite a few youngsters are banging on the door for a spot in first grade. This is an excellent problem to have, as this competition for spots should lead to better individual performances.

I would still like to see another front rower added to the mix, especially with Addin Fonua-Blake exiting at the end of the year, I believe Marata Niukore could become a key figure in filling that hold, but I think another experienced prop can help while the young props get some much-needed time in reserve grade to prepare for the step up.

The backs look deadly on paper, and with RTS coming in at centre, the Warriors may have sorted their issue on the left edge as he is a dangerous attacking weapon and a sound defender. It is a new position for him, but from what I have seen in the trials, he will take to it like a duck to water.

Rocco Berry, Adam Pompey and Ali Leiataua will all be fighting for the other centre spot, and while Berry will get the honours early on, I expect Ali to get his chance and never look back.

Luke Metcalf has shown improvements in the aspect of his game that I had issues with last season, and this could be his year to shine alongside Shaun Johnson, who hopefully will continue his fine form in what could possibly be his final season.

For my Round One 17, trying to get all the pieces to fit was a struggle.

With Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad out with injury, I have gone with Taine Tuaupiki at fullback, joined by last year's wingers Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Marcelo Montoya. My centres are Rocco Berry and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. My halves pairing is Shaun Johnson and Luke Metcalf, who won me over in the trials.

In the forwards, I essentially went with last year's pack. My starting front row is Addin Fonua-Blake, Wayde Egan and Mitchell Barnett. My second row is Jackson Ford and Kurt Capewell, and that is based on Andrew Webster's comments about Ford being a better starter than a bench option. Then my lock is Tohu Harris because, of course.

The bench was a doozy, with so many options to choose from, but I have gone with the bald brothers Dylan Walker and Jazz Tevaga. I then selected Marata Niukore and Tom Ale as my additional props. It was a coin toss between Ale and Bunty Afoa, who both did well in the first trial, but I didn't get to see enough of them in the second, so I went with Ale, who has more upside.

It all depends on what Webster plans to do with Egan; if he wants to give him some time off the field each week to keep him healthy, I will bring Freddy Lussick in to replace Tevaga.

My 2024 Prediction

Continuing my season preview trend, I was wrong with my prediction last season when I said the Warriors would finish tenth.

It's a mixed bag across the ditch with the NRL Pundits; some have high hopes for the Warriors, while others are predicting a big slide, claiming last year's meteoric rise was a flash-in-the-pan fluke.

With that settled squad, RTS and Capewell added, and plenty of self-belief earned after last season's effort, I go into 2024 more confident than I have in some time.

Looking over the Warriors 2024 draw, It seems more favourable than 2023, but in the first 11 rounds, they face every other 2023 top-eight sides (Knights twice, Sharks, Storm, Raiders, Roosters and Panthers). From Round 12 to Round 27 they face top eight sides four times (Storm, Broncos, Raiders and Sharks) and have thier three byes, including having thier last bye in the final round which depending on thier ladder position could prove be a perfect time to rest up the squad before finals.

I don't want to seem dismissive of the Sharks, but the Round 2 match against the Storm will be the true measuring stick for the Warriors' potential early on; it has been an age since the Warriors have beaten the Storm, especially in Melbourne so a win here would really turn some heads.

Leading into the Round 11 Magic Round match against the Panthers, the Warriors could find themselves in a good spot with a potential 8-2 or 7-3 win-loss record; then, with an on-paper easier run home, we want to see the Warriors turn up the intensity as opposed to what happened last year where they kind of plateaued against the lower level teams in the runs to the finals.

If they can start the season strong, stay injury-free, and string some wins together throughout the origin period and at the back end of the season, then staying in the top four for the second year in a row is a real possibility.

The roster has improved, the team is confident and has self-belief, and the fans are all aboard the hype train, so all signs are pointing to a good season. My prediction is that the Warriors will end the regular season in 4th place, and I believe that they will reach their third-ever Grand Final.

What I want to see out of this side is for them to go to the next level, they showed that they could compete with the teams sitting below them on the ladder, this year I want to see them go toe to toe with the Panthers, Broncos and Storm.

So, let's bring on the new season. The Warriors have a great opportunity to make history this year, and it all starts at home, so I will be there in what should be another fantastic atmosphere for what should be a great match and, hopefully, a win against the Sharks.

Once again, I will be writing game reviews every week, releasing them every Monday throughout the season. I will also be looking at writing match previews, which will come out either Tuesday night or Wednesday. So we get to discuss more footy than usual this season; I will also be going to all the Warriors games being played in New Zealand, so if you are at the game, come say hi.

I'm also continuing to host my show, The Stand-Off, on New Zealand Sport Radio with my good friend Richie every Wednesday night at 8pm NZ time, so come join us there as we discuss everything going on in League and answer your questions live. I am sure that I will still be joining several other podcasts that work on Warriors content throughout the year, so be sure to keep an eye or ear out for me on all platforms.

If you like what I do here, please share my blog with your friends and comment on how you think the season is going.

So that's my take on the Warriors' upcoming season, and I just can't wait for Round One. As usual, I will leave you with some questions.

How do you think RTS will go as a centre?
Which player do you think will be the standout performer?
Who would be in your gameday 17?
Where do you think the Warriors will finish in 2024?