NZ Warriors 2023 Finals Week 1 Review: Warriors Taught Harsh Finals Lesson by Powerful Panthers

After Round 27's loss to the Dolphins, the Warriors made their way to BlueBet Stadium to face the Panthers in the first week of finals, the same opposition that eliminated them in their last finals appearance in 2018.

With the massive news that Shaun Johnson would not play this match, the Warrior's slight chance of walking away with a win was reduced to slim. Despite some courageous defence at times, the Warriors were served a welcome reminder of the level required in finals football, going down 32-6, setting up a sudden death finals match in week 2.

What Went Down

Penrith struck the first blow in the fifth minute when Cleary went to the line and found prop Moses Leota, who sent a perfectly timed long pass out to Brian To'o for his 18th try of the season. Cleary converted for a 6-0 lead.

Three minutes later, a mistake by Isaah Yeo handed the Warriors a chance, and Dylan Walker crossed wide out, but the try was ruled out due to obstruction in the lead-up by Adam Pompey.

A slashing run by Dylan Edwards had the Warriors' defence stretched again, but Cleary came up with a dropped ball, and the opportunity went begging.

Midway through the half, the Warriors turned the ball over deep in their own territory, and the Panthers made them pay when Liam Martin ran into a hole off a Cleary pass, and the premiers led 12-0.

Some slick hands from Jack Cogger and Stephen Crichton on the left edge sent Sunia Turuva on his way, and the Panthers had raced to an 18-0 lead.

The Warriors then showed plenty of resilience to hold out a number of sets on their own try-line, but a late penalty against Pompey for crowding in the ruck gave Cleary a shot at a penalty goal, and the half-time score was 20-0.

A dropped ball by Yeo gave the Warriors an early chance in the second half, but it came to nothing after a poor pass out of dummy half by Wayde Egan.

Two crusher tackle penalties against Tohu Harris and Walker in quick succession consigned the Warriors to more defence, but they hung on and took the ball to the other end, where Egan finished off great lead-up work by Rocco Berry and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to score in the 57th minute.

Any hopes of a Warriors comeback were quickly snuffed out when the Panthers' left side clicked into gear, and Turuva finished the movement to make it 26-6 with Cleary's conversion.

From 25 metres out, Cleary bamboozled the Warrior's defence and grabbed a try of his own as the Panthers marched to their seventh consecutive win in finals matches.

My Thoughts

Well, After predicting a narrow Panthers win in last week's review, my thoughts changed, and by Wednesday, I had switched and was confident the Warriors would be ready for the ambush upset win over the defending champs. Then the rumours started swirling before being officially confirmed: Shaun Johnson was out, and with no Ronald Volkman named on the extended bench, the Warriors would be looking at a Te Maire Martin and Dylan Walker halves pairing. This saw my confidence plummet, and after the first 15 minutes of this match, the only thoughts I had left were how much the Warriors would lose by. 

The Panthers are an impressive team and did not let off the pressure in that first half, and the game was essentially over at half-time; they did back off a little in the second half, but even then, they were still too much for the Warriors. They are just an amazing team; they controlled the middle, never stopped asking questions on attack and were a wall of black when defending. It was always going to be a big ask for the Warriors, and unfortunately, they didn't fire a shot.

They were error-riddled and struggled to find a chink in Penrith's armour, a disappointing way to start their finals campaign, but I'm sure that they took a lot out of that loss and they prepare for their sudden death match at Mount Smart this week in what should be a fantastic atmosphere to be in.

It's not doom and gloom from me here. To beat the Panthers, you need to be almost perfect, and the Warriors simply weren't, but their story isn't finished yet.

There were a couple of things from this match to smile about, which brings me to my positives.

Match Positives

The Warriors showed plenty of heart. Yes, They conceded 5 tries in this match, but the Panthers spent plenty of time camped close to the Warriors' line, and they kept putting their bodies on the line despite the game being over well before full-time; the Warriors didn't drop their heads and kept fighting. It didn't lead to a win, but this attitude could be a key factor for the Warriors to keep their finals dreams alive.

The Warriors have a 2nd bite of the apple; the perks of finishing in the top four means they have that extra life to reset, refocus and get back on track. The team got a taste of finals football against the best team in the NRL, got served a dose of reality after a relatively easy final month of the season and get to play in front of a packed-out Mt Smart Stadium in what is a very winnable game. Second chances are rare, so they must take it with both hands.

However, I did have some concerns, which brings me to my negatives from the game.

Match Negatives

Errors again, the Warriors ended the match with 14. I've been saying for a while now that if the Warriors continued making 10 or more errors a game, they would be in trouble in the finals, and that is what we saw with the Panthers scoring 4 of their 5 tries straight after the Warrior's errors. Only six teams are left in the finals, and any of the other 5 teams will punish the Warriors if they continue to make these silly errors. I went through the error stats for every Warriors game this season and found that they average 10.5 errors a match, with the last time they made single-digit errors being in Round 20 against the Sharks (making only 6). If they don't get back to single digits now, their campaign will be over sooner rather than later.

The Warriors struggled to match the Panthers in the middle; only two of the Warriors forwards hit my ideal triple-digit figure: the usual suspects Addin Fonua-Blake (133m) and Tohu Harris (113m). The pack just couldn't bend the Panther's defensive line, which made life harder for the makeshift halves pairing as they spent a lot of their time kicking from deep within their own half. This highlighted the glaring issue with the Warrior's small bench, as there wasnt anyone there to help eat those metres. That isn't something that can be fixed overnight, but the Forwards need to step up if they want to succeed.

Lastly, the Warriors attack missed SJ; I know Webster said in his post-match interview that having Johnson out there would not have helped, as he would not have stopped the errors and whatnot. However, I disagree slightly; while he wouldn't have helped in some areas, his leadership and direction in attack, not to forget his kicking game, could have taken some pressure off the Warriors and asked more questions of the Panther's defence. I know there is still an injury cloud around SJ, and we are not 100% sure if he will play, but I think there is no way he will sit out of the sudden death final, so I expect him to play, and boy do the Warriors need him to.

Warrior of the Match

My Warrior of the Match goes to Tohu Harris.

I was stuck between Harris and Egan for this segment, but I went with the skipper; returning from his injury rest last week, he played the entire match, led the game with 56 tackles and ran for those 113 metres. With SJ out, he was leaned on more for his ball playing and got a few nice short balls away. It was a courageous effort from Harris, and if a few more forwards follow in his footsteps and play with the heart he does, then the Warriors have a great chance of controlling the middle every week. 

Warrior to Improve

My Warriors to Improve is Adam Pompey.

This is another tough segment to pick this week, with several players unfortunately in contention here, but I have gone with Pompey. Looked off on defence all night, resorting to jersey pulling at times and grasping air at others, missing 4 tackles, which played a part in several of the Panther's easy tries. Not to mention a silly decoy run that took away a Warriors try. He is a divisive player with the Warriors fanbase and switched off too much for my liking. However, he still has great moments in him and was the only Warriors outside back to not make a handling error, the true definition of a rocks and diamonds player and with almost no chance of being dropped; I hope we see some diamonds this week.

Finals Week 2 Thoughts and Prediction

Finals Week 2 sees the Warriors return to Auckland to host the Newcastle Knights, who fought back from behind to win 30-28 over the Raiders in overtime of their finals week 1 match, securing their tenth win in a row.

Regarding the team I would pick, I would stick with the same side; it's too late in the season to chop and change, so I would just bring Johnson back into the halves and move Walker back to the bench with Lussick dropping out. I've kept Ford in the starting lineup but want to see the Coaching staff bring Curran on sooner this week, as he makes too much of an impact to ride the pine for as long as he did against the Panthers.

A big match here, facing a Knights team on a ten-game winning streak; these sides have one win each in their battles this year, with each side being victorious at home, and it should be a fantastic match.

The Warriors need to reduce those errors, get the ball rolling up the field and open up the Knights' defence with some short balls before spreading wide. 

If the last home finals match (in 2008 vs. the Roosters in the infamous blackout match) is anything to go by, this crowd will be electric. 

I am very grateful that I got tickets and can't wait for this match. If the Warriors can ride the momentum given to them from the home crowd, then I find it hard to see them not progressing to a daunting match against the Broncos in the preliminary final, so I am picking the Warriors to get the job done here in a close encounter, winning by 4.

So that was disappointing but not surprising Finals Week 1, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Who was your player to Improve?

What changes would you make to the 17?

Have you got Tickets to this week's match?

What is your score prediction against the Knights?