NZ Warriors 2023 Round 26 Review: Top Four Locked in after Warriors cut it close against Desperate Dragons

After Round 25's win over the Sea Eagles, the Warriors remained home to face a Dragons side with nothing but pride left to play for.

In front of another large crowd for their last home game of the regular season, the Warriors were pushed to the limit by the Dragons but ultimately were too strong for them, getting their seventh win in a row 18-6.

What Went Down

The Warriors had plenty to play for in their final regular season home game: not only was it Shaun Johnson’s 250th NRL game, but a win over the Dragons (who were competitive against Melbourne last week) would get them closer to a top-four spot.

The Dragons nearly scored off the kick-off when Zac Lomax cleaned up a bouncing ball and touched down. But The Bunker ruled that Lomax had knocked on while trying to gather the footy.

Adam Pompey scored the first official try in the 13th minute and then converted for a 6-0 lead.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad made it 10-0 after 20 minutes with an excellent stepping run from close range.

Addin Fonua-Blake nearly put the game away just before half-time but knocked on over the line. However, the Warriors still had a 10-0 lead at the break.

Jacob Liddle looked to have got the Dragons on the board in the 53rd minute but also knocked on over the line.

Lomax finally scored the Dragons’ first try in the 61st minute after a huge Ben Hunt bomb, with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak unable to clean it up. Lomax converted to get the Dragons within four points.

Fonua-Blake made up for his earlier bombed try by touching down a Johnson grubber kick in the 75th minute. Tyrell Sloan tried to pick it up in the in-goal (instead of grounding it for a goal-line dropout), with Fonua-Blake taking advantage of the error in the match's final scoring play.

The win puts the third-placed Warriors (38) four points clear of the fourth-placed Melbourne and six clear of Cronulla-Sutherland (fifth) and Canberra (sixth), though that gap is likely to close during the weekend.

My Thoughts

Well, the Warriors extend their win streak to seven with another scratchy performance, this time against the team I despise the most, the Dragons.

When it looked like the Dragons scored seconds after kick-off, I couldn't help but laugh. I may hate them, but it was such an amazing display of how desperate they were to get the result; thankfully, as a Warriors fan, the try was denied, but credit to them for applying pressure.

In what has become a theme since the Warrior's last bye, they didn't deliver their best performance, but I felt like they remained in control for most of the match; they just didn't convert their opportunities as much as I would have liked to see. The Dragons have been fighting tooth and nail as their season nears its end, as we saw in their valiant effort against the Storm, but the Warriors contained almost all of their attacking chances, which was what I wanted to see out of this match, I didn't care how many points they scored, I just wanted to see them keep the Dragons to single digit points which is what I got.

I am slightly concerned by the Warrior's recent form, but with a top 4 spot locked in, I hope Andrew Webster has got his finals plans set; in a recent interview, he said he knows where the team needs to be for finals, and Addin Fonua-Blake has said there is plenty left in the tank for the team to make some waves in their first finals campaign since 2018.

So, I will continue the mantra I have said all year: In Webster, we trust, and I look forward to seeing what this team will do in the playoffs. However, Before finals, they still have one match left, and I want to see them deliver a more complete performance.

There were aspects of the match to smile about, which brings me to my positives.

Match Positives

The forwards put in some work. The Dragons boast a large pack, but the Warriors took it to them with every starting forward, with the exception of Bunty Afoa hitting that triple-digit mark I aim for every week. Led as always by Addin Fonua-Blake (223m) and Tohu Harris (200m). Marata Niukore (123m) and Josh Curran (112m) followed suit; additionally, Dylan Walker ran for 129m off the bench, which was just a massive performance by all involved. 

I'm always biased as a former forward, but they are so integral to getting your side the edge when the Warriors get rolling up the middle; it allows the backs to do what they are paid to do. It was the perfect platform to run up the scoreboard, but silly errors prevented that; however, if the pack can keep this level of effort moving forward, they will find themselves in the driver's seat and make winning much easier.

After a slight slip-up last week, the Warrior's defence was back on track. They only allowed in one try, and it was off an unfortunate kick, which has been an issue for the Warriors all year. 

They shut down many of the Dragon's attempts, reducing them to only one linebreak in the match and keeping the dangerous players like Zac Lomax and Tyrell Sloan contained. They also performed better around the ruck area. Still need to take it to another level, as stopping the Dragon's attack is not on the same level as the teams they will face in finals, but it is a step in the right direction.

Lastly, the Warriors have locked in a top 4 finish for the first time since 2007.

It has been such a sudden change after the dismal 2022 that we had to endure, going from the 15th spot on the ladder with a 6-18 record (5-7 at home and a shocking 1-11 away) and 408 points scored and 700 points conceded. 

Now sitting third with a 16-7 record (8-4 at home and 8-3 away), with 562 points scored and only 414 points conceded. 

It's been a fantastic season, and it's just great to see the team and fans alike rewarded. Nothing was handed to them; they were written off before the season began and have worked hard to get where they are. I have skipped writing a season review for the past two seasons, but I am looking forward to digging deep into this season when it is all over, and hopefully, it is just the beginning of a fruitful era in the club's history.

However, I did have some concerns, which brings me to my negatives from the game.

Match Negatives

The Warriors could have put on a cricket score in this match if they didn't let themselves with errors and a lack of discipline. They ended with 11 errors and 10 penalties conceded; against a bottom-two team, you can overcome these setbacks and walk away with the win, but if they continue this trend of double-digit errors when they hit the finals, then they may find themselves with a one-way ticket to an early exit. They just can't allow a decent side to have that many extra sets. Just eliminate the coach killers and show the ball more respect; a single-digit error count will be on the horizon.

The Dragons were able to keep the Warrior's lethal right edge quiet; they were rushing up in defence and restricted many chances the Warriors would have usually had. The extra pressure forced some of those errors that the Warriors made. Teams will look at this as a key to shutting the Warriors down. The Warriors will need to put some kicks over the rushing defence or cut back to the inside to force the defence to take a step back. It's easier said than done, but I'm confident that Shaun Johnson and the rest of the spine can do it.

The last negative isn't an aspect of the performance but the injury to Luke Metcalf; I know I have been pushing for the return of Te Maire Martin, but I didn't want to see it happen due to an injury. Metcalf still has a lot to learn as a first grader, but I have been so impressed with his first year in a Warriors jersey and watching him in tears on the sideline broke me. He has had bad luck with his hamstrings, and thankfully, it wasnt the same one he injured at the beginning of the year. It's a heartbreaking way for his year to end, but I look forward to watching him bounce back in 2024. 

Warrior of the Match

My Warrior of the Match goes to Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.

Another stellar outing for CNK here, scoring a nice try showing some fancy footwork, and was heavily involved with the ball in hand, running for 217m and making 9 tackle breaks, 1 linebreak and 1 line break assist. Defensively, he only had to make 5 tackles but came up clutch with a fantastic one-on-one strip. It's been an excellent year for the returning Warrior; we all know the story: unwanted at the Raiders and being moved to reserve grade to now being one of the first names written on the Warriors gameday teamsheet. He has made every post a winner, and I expect that to continue as the Warriors move into the finals.

Warrior to Improve

No Warrior to improve this week

This was hard this week. I had Metcalf earmarked at half-time for this section, but I excluded him from selection due to his injury, so I settled on just a general improvement by all.

We are almost at the finals now, and after a month of grinding wins, which I believe will help them in the finals, we need to see the team hit another level this week, which is obviously the most cliche thing that I have said; however, it doesn't make it less accurate. 

Next Round Thoughts and Prediction

Round 27, the final round for the regular season, sees the Warriors head back across the ditch to Suncorp Stadium to face the Dolphins, who went down 34-10 to the Cowboys in Round 26.

Regarding the team I would pick, It is a bit interesting as with a top four spot locked in, there are talks that Andrew Webster may look to rest some key players to have them fresh for finals, and also, Captain Tohu Harris will miss at least this weeks match with a back injury, if he is out I would have Mitch Barnett take his spot if he is fit, if he isn't then Curran moves there.

While I get that train of thought, I would be playing the same side as I feel the Warriors have not responded well after the byes, so I don't want to see that happen again in the first week of finals. With the Metcalf injury, we should see the return of Te Maire Martin in what would my only change, who looked like he hadn't missed a step in his return to NSW Cup this week. 

The Dolphins started their inaugural with a hiss and a roar, but as the season has dragged on, they have struggled with their depth and the chemistry amongst the squad. Which is kind of what I expected in their first year. However, in their final game of the year in front of their loyal fans, I expect them to come out fighting and will be determined to end their campaign on a high note.

Almost the same as I said last week, the Warriors need to be ready for a battle, keep their error rate low, dominate the middle and get the ball out to the deadly right edge. If that happens, then it is on to the eighth win in a row.

I believe the Warriors will get the job done, but it will be another tight one, so I am going with a Warriors win by 10.

So that was stressful Round 26, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Would you be resting players this week?

Who would you replace Tohu Harris with?

What teams would you prefer the Warriors to face in Finals Week 1, Broncos or Panthers?

What is your score prediction against the Dolphins?