NZ Warriors 2023 Round 18 Review: Weather bogs down Warriors as Rabbitohs open the Floodgates

 

After Round 17's victory over the Dragons, the Warriors return home to face the Rabbitohs.

In horrible conditions, the Warriors failed to execute and were soundly defeated 28-6 in what may be their worst performance of the 2023 campaign.

What Went Down

Wet and wild weather was on hand to greet the Warriors and Rabbitohs at Go Media Stadium in Auckland. Both sides had late withdrawals before kick-off – Isaiah Tass and Campbell Graham for the Rabbitohs and Josh Curran for the Warriors.

In the early exchanges, both sides traded sets while remaining cautious with ball movement in the wet conditions. The Warriors gained the ascendency off the back of several penalties. With the field position advantage, they eventually broke through the Rabbitohs' defence. Wade Egan created an opportunity down the short side for Marcelo Montoya to grab a try. Despite conceding the first points, the Rabbitohs bounced back quickly.

Off the back of a penalty of their own, the Rabbitohs got their first crack at the Warrior's goal-line defence and converted it into points. Cody Walker created an overlap, and Alex Johnston finished the backline shift to score. After the Rabbitohs won back momentum, Addin Fonua-Blake was sin-binned for high contact, and the Rabbitohs took the two points.

With the man advantage and fatigue setting in, Damien Cook set up Cameron Murray for a try, giving the Rabbitohs a 12-6 lead at halftime.

The second half was more of the same from the Rabbitohs, applying pressure from the get-go. Eventually, they broke through when Cody Walker chipped for Alex Johnston to grab his second try. Falling behind by 10, the Warriors looked to have scored against the run of play when Dallin Watene-Zelezniak charged down a kick and ran away to score. However, the bunker found a knock-on in the play and overturned the try.

Making matters worse for the Warriors, they conceded a try going the other way. Lachlan Ilias kicked for 18-year-old Tyrone Munro to score on debut, putting the Rabbitohs up by 16 points. That lead would prove too much to overcome for the Warriors. The Rabbitohs executed their wet weather game plan to perfection in the last 10 minutes, with Blake Taaffe adding one more try to finish off the win 28-6.

My Thoughts

Well, that really sucked; in my infinite wisdom, with the knowledge of the pending poor weather, I decided to get to the grounds early to watch the NSW Cup match; this meant that before the Warriors match kicked off, I was already soaked to the bone. 

Being cold and wet while watching the Warriors put on their worst display of the season put me in a deflated mood. As I was making the long walk back to my car, various emotions ran through me, but I settled on disappointment.

The Warriors got the first try, but after that, it was a brutal watch with error after error, and the Rabbitohs just bullied them all over the park. 

The weather was horrendous, but both teams had to play in it, and one was much better in the wet than the other. This is something that concerns me as the Warrior's two worse performances this season have been in the poor weather, so maybe the Warriors just cannot perform in rainy conditions, which is something they need to fix since they play in Auckland regularly.

It's a crash-to-earth moment for the Warriors, I was talking up a top 4 spot last week, and now they are at risk of falling out of the top eight; the competition is just that close, so they need to take a breath, take note of what went wrong and make sure it doesn't happen again as the next few weeks are against quality opposition and they need to nail those wins.

 

There wasn't much from this game to smile about, but I have one which leads to my positive from the match.

Match Positive

It was hard to glean any positives from the multiple times I have watched the match other than it is a valuable lesson for the Warriors to learn. They were shown that even if you are out of form, if you execute the basics, have the right game plan and stick to it, then you should set yourself up for victory.

The Warriors got caught with their pants down and had the wrong idea of how to succeed in the wet, and I am sure that the coaching staff have got together and gone over the tape to ensure that this doesn't happen again. Losses suck, but how a team bounces back is the true sign of their character.

However, some things did concern me, bringing me to my negative from the game.

Match Negatives

The Warriors deviated from the game plan and paid the price. Instead of doing the hard yards up the middle, they elected to try and go around the Rabbitohs, which may have worked if they could keep their hands on the ball. However, expansive football seldom works in the wet, as was proven here. Keeping to the plans set in place falls to the leaders on the pitch, so Tohu Harris, Addin Fonua-Blake and Shaun Johnson need to be better at getting the squad back on track. If they return to following the game plan, I expect them to return to the winner's circle again.

Again, Errors were high; they ended the match with 13, and while the weather played its part, their opponents only made 3. They stayed in the fight for the first half, but as they kept giving up possession, they made the hill that much harder to climb, which pushed them to take further risks that did not work in their favour. On top of that, they keep pushing to the edges in the wet weather, which wasn't wise as the Rabbitohs easily slid them over the sidelines. It goes back to my positive, take note of this lesson, build on it, and show the ball more respect. 

Lastly, the forwards lost the battle in the middle; we still had three of the pack hit the triple digits, Addin Fonua-Blake (139m), Tohu Harris (125m), and Mitch Barnett (113m), but the pack lacked punch, and it's why they failed when they started to spread it wide, as they didn't get the job done in the middle. There are no shortcuts in the NRL if you want to be successful, and the Warriors need their forwards to play their part if they want to climb the ladder.

Warrior of the Match

 

My Warrior of the Match goes to Tohu Harris.

The Warriors skipper hasn't featured a lot in this category, but it's just because I am so used to the massive job he does every week that others always get ahead of him, so when there is an overall poor performance from the team, he is almost guaranteed to get the nod. He made 51 tackles, ran 16 times for 125m, second only to Addin Fonua-Blake (139m) and just kept plugging away in what was a frustrating match. He did make a few errors, including a few silly passes that lost his side possession, but those are things that I'm sure will improve next week. Wasnt the best performance, but he was better than the rest of his teammates, at least.

Warrior to Improve

My Warrior to Improve is Rocco Berry.

Another tough pick this week, but unfortunately, it was due to many players having an off night; however, I have settled on Berry. The young centre is a controversial figure in Warriors fandom; some think he has the goods, while others believe he will never be a regular first-grader. I am on the fence with him, but I can admit that his stock is depleting.

He has had a few good moments, but in this match, there was nothing to highlight for him; he did make 25 tackles with no misses, but a few defensive misreads from him really put the Warriors' defensive line under pressure. With the ball in hand, he was nothing to write home about, with only 4 runs for 38m, which was less than half the next lowest in the Warriors' back five (Adam Pompey and DWZ both with 99m). He will likely get a chance to redeem himself due to the current injuries in the backs, but his time is running out.

Next Round Thoughts and Prediction

Round 19 sees the Warriors head back across the ditch to face the Eels, who had the bye in Round 18.

Regarding the team I would pick, I would keep it the same, except for bringing in Brayden Wiliame or Ali Leiataua for Rocco Berry, depending on if either is fit. Still no word on Te Maire Martin or Jazz Tevaga yet, so I have ruled them out. There are also rumours that Shaun Johnson may miss this match due to the pending arrival of his new child, half stocks are thin right now, but I assume that would mean Ronald Volkman would replace him, which has me worried after watching his less-than-stellar showing on Friday night in the NSW Cup.

The Warriors need to get this win if they wish to remain in the top eight, as a defeat here will see the Cowboys replace them due to them having a bye this round. The Eels will most likely be without Mitch Moses due to Origin, but that makes them no easier to play against.

The Warriors were taught a harsh lesson this week, and if they want to get back on track, they need to stick to the basics. 

The forwards need to dominate the middle, and the team needs to reduce the error rate while utilising that short passing game that has created so many opportunities for them this season. If they do that, it should open up the Eels' defensive line and allow Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Marcelo Montoya to strike on the edges. It will be a challenging task, but I expect a bounce back, so I am going with a 6-point victory for the Warriors.

So that was a wet and miserable Round 18, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Who would you have in the centres?

Do you think the Warriors have an issue playing in the rain?

If SJ is out, can the Warriors compete?

What is your score prediction against the Eels?