NZ Warriors 2021 Round 16 Review: Implosion in final ten puts season on life support

After round 15's loss to the Knights and a week off, the Warriors returned to the Central Coast to face the Dragons in yet another must-win clash. Due to the recent COVID outbreaks, this meant the match was played without a crowd. I went into this match confident that the Warriors would come away with the victory and it looked like a win was on the cards until the Dragons surged into the match in the final ten minutes to level the scores before slotting a field goal in Golden Point to see the Warriors lose their fourth match in a row 19-18

Well, that was hard to swallow; the Warriors let another game slip. It was another low scoring match with the Dragons crossing for the first try through Ben Hunt before the Warriors took over, scoring back to back tries via Wayde Egan and Eliesa Katoa to go into the break leading 12-6. A try in the 50th minute by Bunty Afoa handed the Warriors an 18-6 lead, and the Warriors appeared to be in the drivers set; the Warriors had a few more chances but could not get across the line. Then as the clock hit the 70th minute, the Dragons found another gear, and the Warriors went into their shell as the Dragons scored three tries via Gerard Beale, Jack Bird and Cody Ramsey to level the scores at 18, all as the match went into Golden Point. Golden Point was tense with both sides trying to nail a field goal, but in the 88th minute, Corey Norman got the one that counted to break the Dragons losing streak against the Warriors.

It was another tough loss to stomach, the Warriors continue to let victory slip out of their grasp, and this could be the season-defining loss that seems them miss the playoffs. They sit two points outside the eight and have the Panthers and Rabbitohs in back to back matchups in rounds 18 and 19, so they really needed to bank some competition points the past few rounds. They missed Reece Walsh's spark out the back, and the injury to Tohu Harris did not help them, but they had this game won and took their foot if the gas. The Broncos defeating the Sharks has kept the Warriors within reach of the top eight, but if they continue to perform like they have in the past month, their campaign is over.

Despite the result, some things left a smile on my face, which leads to my positives from the match. 

Match Positives

More of the Forwards came to the party this week with five players running for over 100 metres. Addin Fonua-Blake (192) lead the pack, followed by Eliesa Katoa (133), Bayley Sironen (107) and Jazz Tevaga and Leeson Ah Mau (both with 104), Bunty Afoa was just behind them (93), with only Kane Evans (65) and Ben Murdoch-Masila (51) ending the match with subpar numbers. With the recent signing of Matt Lodge (more on that below), I would be worried if I was Evans as he would be the front-rower I would be dropping.

I thought the Warriors looked better on attack with Chad Townsend out there directing traffic; he took a hit on the first set that injured him, so he wasn't 100% for the rest of the match, but his direction was a sight for sore eyes and I think if he had a better halves partner out there, then the Warriors would have scored a lot more points. His field goal attempt when the Warriors were ahead 18-6 was questionable and a horrible attempt, but Nathan Brown advised after the match that Townsend thought they were only six ahead when he made the kick. 

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak was solid on debut, he had a few wobbly kick defusals, but other than that, he ran the ball hard and added some speed to the Warriors attack. The Warriors could be a dangerous side to face with him, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Walsh all out the back. I haven't been this optimistic about a Warriors back three for quite some time.

Wayde Egan played one of his better games in a Warriors jersey. I have been very critical of the young hooker, but he showed up in this match. The forwards gave him a better platform, and he was able to deliver quicker ball from the ruck and also scored a nice try when he sniped out of the ruck. I still had a few issues with some of his passes on the last tackle, but it was definitely a step in the right direction.

I had plenty of concerns, however, which leads to my negatives from the match.

Match Negatives

The Warriors made too many errors again. They ended the match with 11. A lot of these came from trying to force an offload when it wasn't on. I love offloads, don't get me wrong but seeing the Warriors throw a 50/50 offload early in the tackle count makes me lose my mind, especially when they have the lead. The season is now on the line, so respect for the ball is now more important than ever.

On top of giving the Dragons the ball too often with errors, the Warriors made things harder on themselves with six again calls; they only had 5, but almost all of them were late in the tackle count, and that is a coach killer. Giving your opposition an extra 25 tackles is a surefire way to guarantee that you exit the grounds without competition points. Most of the calls were for delaying the play the ball; on the plus side, this is an easy adjustment to make, so I expect to see an improvement this week.

Injuries are a concern, they lost Tohu Harris early in the match, and it looks like he is set to miss at least one week; Katoa and Townsend could also miss some game time. The Warriors depth has tested plenty this season, and hopefully, the light is at the end of the tunnel, and they start to get their full strength side back together on the field soon.

And lastly, my regular negative missed tackles. The Warriors did better this week but still missed 26, and against a team like the Dragons, that is a red flag. The Warriors need to crack down on this before the games against the Panthers and Rabbitohs; otherwise, those games will not be pretty to watch or write about.

Warrior of the Match

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My Warrior of the match goes to Eliesa Katoa. His second year with the club has been less than stellar, but we are starting to see the 2020 Katoa again. He scored a nice try and was constantly threatening with the ball in hand with 133 metres from 12 runs. He also made a line break, 5 tackle breaks and was defensively sound, making 35 tackles without a miss. I have my fingers crossed that we will see Katoa continue in this form for the remainder of the season, and I expect him to go to another level next season with Shaun Johnson back and feeding him the ball.

Warrior to Improve

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My Warrior to improve goes to Sean O'Sullivan for the second week in a row. It was hard to pick this week with Ed Kosi also not having the best game. However, I have let Kosi off as he is technically still a development player and would not be playing this season with the Warriors had better cover (I still don't get why Pompey isn't moved to the wing and Berry into the centres?). So I've gone with O'Sullivan again, he was a late call up for this match when Nikorima was ruled out and had his chance to redeem himself after his poor effort against the Knights, but he struggled once again. His kicking was better on a positive note, but he let the side down with his discipline, getting penalised twice (the Warriors only penalties) and giving away 1 ruck infringement. He is off-contract at the end of the year, and I don't see many people interested in picking him up, although he may get himself an extension with the Warriors just to add some halves cover. Hopefully, Townsend and Nikorima are both fit for this round as I don't have any confidence that the Warriors can win with SOS in the halves.

Next rounds thoughts and predictions

Round 17 sees the Warriors travel to Netstrata Jubilee Stadium to take on the Sharks. This is another must-win match for the Warriors (I feel like I will be saying that for the rest of the season); with the Sharks sitting in 8th spot, the Warriors need the win to keep themselves in the hunt. The Warriors will be missing Harris, but I expect to see Jazz Tevaga move into the lock spot. Walsh should return to fullback with RTS going back to the wing. I have fingers crossed that Townsend and Nikorima are deemed fit to play. Then in the pack, I would bring in Lodge for Evans and bring Otukolo onto the bench to take Tevagas spot. With the team set up like that, I go into the match confident, and I'm going to pick the Warriors to win by 8.

Since I last wrote, the Warriors announced the effective immediately signing of Broncos prop Matt Lodge. The signing comes with a bit of controversy due to Lodge's past discretion, but I am a fan of it; what he did all those years ago was stupid, and he was punished at the time and since then, from what I have seen, has not been in any strife since. He does plenty of grunt work up the middle and should help AFB get the Warriors on the front foot, and the thought of what the Warriors backs could do of the back of them is exciting.

Also, before I sign off, Nathan Brown found out after Fridays match that his brother passed away; I also lost a family member last week and know the toll it takes on you. I offer Brown my condolences in this sad time and hope he has the love and support he needs to get through this time.

So that was a frustrating Round 16, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Are the Warriors still a chance for finals?

Who was your player of the day?

What are your thoughts on the signing of Matt Lodge?

What is your score prediction against the Sharks?