The Stand-Off S2 E17 Walsh To The Rescue

 

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NZ Warriors 2021 Round 15 Review: Season takes a hit after Warriors defeated in downpour

After round 14's loss to the Storm, the Warriors travelled to Newcastle to face the Knights. It was a must-win for both sides, and I was quietly confident that the Warriors would be able to get the job done. But, unfortunately, I got it wrong once again, with the Warriors losing 10-6 in terrible conditions.

Yet another game that the Warriors have let slip this season; it was a low scoring affair with the rain not helping either side. Both sides were poor in this match, making errors and struggling to get their attack into gear. The Warriors looked certain to score when Reece Walsh snatched a kick and ran 80 metres before being stopped just before the try-line. However, a Knights knock-on saw the Warriors score the first points on the match when Euan Aitken scooped the ball up, running 70 metres to the try-line. The Knights bounced back with a try to Lachlan Fitzgibbon; however, Fitzgibbon was sent to the bin on the next set, but even with a one-man advantage, the Warriors could not add to it their score and went into the sheds leading 6-4. The second half was just as frustrating to watch with the Warriors struggling to string anything together in the rain. The Knights levelled the scores with a penalty goal in the 51st minute, and then the game settled into a wrestle in the middle of the park. In trying conditions, all eyes were on the battle of the packs, and the Knights won the tussle. In the final five minutes, the Warriors attempted to field goals through Walsh, but the first was charged down, and the second missed to the left. Newcastle then surged down the field and scored in the corner after a repeat set when Brodie Jones crossed. The Warriors still had a chance to steal the win, but the sin-binning of Ben Murdoch-Masila in the dying stages didn't help matters, and the Knights ended the match with some slow one out football to suck up the final minutes.

It was a hard game to watch; the Warriors attack was horrible, with the only times they looked like scoring were in counterattacks. I'm not sure where they go from here; if they keep letting winnable games slip, then they will find themselves out of playoff contention sooner rather than later.

There was not much for me to smile about, but it wasn't all doom and gloom, which leads to my positives from the match.

Match Positives

I thought Taniela Otukolo had a decent debut; he played 32 minutes and was got the ball out of the ruck quick. He is known for his running game, but we didn't get to see any of that this match. He also looked alright on defence, making 27 tackles with only 1 miss. I think he did more than enough to earn a spot in the 17 for the rest of the season, either as starting hooker or the No. 14. 

My last positive was the effort from Reece Walsh. He was under plenty of pressure out the back with the Knights putting up some monster bombs.  He made that great kick return in the first half and almost got a try in the second half when jumping above everyone to snatch a kick on the goal line. He also kicked a handy conversion from the sideline. He also made his fair share of errors, ending the match with 4, but he was given his all for the entire match to his credit. He is a tough kid too, the Knights were hitting him with everything they had, and you could see that he was hurting, but he kept getting up. He has heaps of heart. I hope the rest of the side can bring the effort he does for the rest of the season.

There were plenty of things that troubled me, which leads to my negatives from the match.

Match Negatives

The rubbish weather handed itself to being a forward battle, but the Warriors pack left plenty to be desired once again. Only two Warriors forwards ran for over 100 metres, Addin Fonua-Blake (111) and Tohu Harris (117), with a few not far behind them with Ben Murdoch-Masila (82), Eliesa Katoa (80) and Kane Evans (84).  Leeson Ah Mau (60) was ok due to his limited minutes, but Bayley Sironen (27) and Josh Curran (38) barely made a dent with the ball in hand. The pack isn't being helped with Nathan Brown's rotation, but they simply need to make more of an impact if the Warriors want to string some wins together.

The Warriors attack took a backwards step in this match. They just had no direction and barely threatened the Knights try line when they were in the RedZone. Both halves struggled with their last tackle options, and their kicking was wayward at best. The Warriors need to make some changes, and I will go into that further below, but if they stay the course with what they have right now, then they can kiss the season goodbye. 

The Warriors just made too many errors again. They ended the match with 13; sure, the weather did not help, but letting the Knights off the hook 13 times was just a coach killer. While they were not doing much with the ball anyway, they just need to show the ball more respect. If they can do that, then there may be some hope yet. 

 
And the last thing is my frequent bugbear, missed tackles. The Warriors missed 43 tackles, and I just don't know what they can do to improve. Missing that many tackles against a Knights team also struggling on attack was a massive red flag. Sign a new defensive coach asap!

Warrior of Match

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For the second week in a row, my Warrior of the match goes to Tohu Harris. There were some highlights from Walsh, but Harris is just Mr Consistant. 117 running metres, a linebreak assist, 2 offloads and 55 tackles. You know what you get with Harris, and I just want to see the rest of the side adopt his attitude.

Warrior to Improve 

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My Warrior to improve goes to Sean O'Sullivan. I liked what I saw from him earlier in the season, but he had a howler in this match. He made poor decision after poor decision with the ball in hand, his kicks were off target, and he just looked a step or two behind everyone else. I don't know why he didn't try to put some bombs up in the wet weather to try and force some errors, but he has a lot of work to do if he remains in the halves for the side. I have just lost confidence that he can fill in for Chanel Harris-Tavita.

Next rounds thoughts and prediction

The NRL is taking a break this week with State of Origin game two playing on Sunday. I think it is a missed opportunity to have some other games played this round. A Kiwis vs Tonga would have slotted in nicely this week, but it is what it is. Hopefully, we see something like that next year. However, that means we have no Warriors game this week. I'm not sure what I will post next Monday, but I will figure something out; if you have anything you would like me to tackle, let me know, and I will give it a go.

After the week off, Round 16 sees the Warriors return to the Central Coast to face the Dragons in some Friday night football. There is no sugarcoating it; the Warriors need to win this match. The Dragons have been up and down this season, but they returned to the winner's circle in round 15 with a win over the Raiders. It's a hard game to pick, but I will say the Warriors will win this match by 8.

Nathan Brown needs to make some changes if the Warriors are to remain in the hunt for playoffs. He needs to move Walsh into the halves and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to fullback. I know they want Walsh to be the fullback next season, but if the Warriors are to play finals football this season, that switch makes the Warriors better. I would also move Adam Pompey to the wing (Unless Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has joined the club before then) and bring Rocco Berry back into the centres. In the forwards, I would drop Sironen and bring Jack Murchie back into the lineup as I just feel that Sironen is adding enough to the pack's effort. We have some time to see what Brown decides moving forward, but unfortunately, I think we will see the same lineup from this round ran out again.

So that was a poor Round 15, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Are the Warriors still a chance for finals?
Who was your player of the day?
Would you make any changes to the game day 17?
What is your score prediction against the Dragons?

NZ Warriors Round 14 Review: Warriors lacklustre against Storm in Maumalo farewell

After round 13's bye, the Warriors returned to their makeshift home on the Central Coast to face the Storm. I wasn't confident that the Warriors would walk away with the victory here, predicting a 16 point loss, but I was off the mark with the Storm beating them by 26 points in a comprehensive 42-16 defeat.

Another disappointing performance from the Warriors here, they managed to keep the Storm quiet for the first 20 minutes of the match, but after that, the Storm put on a show, scoring five tries before the Warriors managed to cross through the exiting Ken Maumalo. Melbourne went back to work scoring another two tries before the Warriors ended the match, sending Maumalo over for another two tries, giving the big winger his second hattrick of the season with the final whistle blowing as images of Maumalo in tears as his time as a Warrior comes to an end.

Well, that was another game to forget; facing the Storm is never an easy task, but the Warriors barely fired a shot. I was hoping that they would have worked on some of the issues that plagued them through the first half of the season during the bye week, but unfortunately, I didn't see any improvements. They are still in the logjam in the middle of the ladder, so they still have a shot of making the top-eight; however, they need to start stringing some weeks together and do it without their halfback.

There wasn't much for me to smile about, but it wasn't all doom and gloom, which leads to my positive from the match.

Match Positives

The Warriors started the match better than normal, keeping the Storm contained for the first quarter of the match. Their defence wasn't great, but they did enough to hold the Storm off and force some errors, including yet another bone rattler from Chanel Harris-Tavita. However, the Storm kept piling on the pressure, and the Warriors folded. The Warriors need to extend that first 20 minutes into an 80-minute effort.

The Warriors welcomed back Addin Fonua-Blake, and I thought he had a decent hitout for his first appearance in 10 weeks. He played 50 minutes and had 9 runs for 81 metres with 1 tackle break. He also made 20 tackles with two misses. Not the stats were are used to seeing from the marque signing, but once he gets a few games under his belt, I am sure we will see him back to his best.

The Warriors have a string of winnable games; the next three rounds see them facing the Knights, Dragons and Sharks. None of these sides are easy beats by any means, and the Warriors will need to bring their best to get the much-needed competition points. They then have to face the Panthers and Rabbitohs back-to-back, so winning the next three rounds is a must to keep their playoff hopes alive.

My last positive goes to Ken Maumalo getting a hattrick in his last match as a Warrior. Not only was it Maumalos second-ever hattrick, but it was also his second against the Storm after scoring three in the Anzac clash earlier this year. Seeing him in tears as the game ended pulled at my heartstrings, I felt for him, and you can see he clearly has plenty of love for this club. Maumalo has always been a decisive player amongst the fanbase, and I have been critical of the big man myself. However, his time at the club has not been helped by his pairing with centres that did not like passing the ball, and we saw what he could offer when he was partnered with Peta Hiku. I would have kept him with the side, but the current NRL product is moving away from the larger wingers, so I understand the decision. He is on his way to the Tigers, and I'm sure he will do well there; however, I do have my fingers crossed that he doesn't help the Tigers to victory when the Warriors face them in round 20.

There was plenty of things that troubled me, which leads to my negatives from the match.

Match Negatives

The forwards continued to struggle to impact the game, with this being the second game in the row without a single forward running for over 100 metres. The closest were Tohu Harris (84) and Fonua-Blake (81). They weren't helped with several getting limited minutes (Bunty Afoa and Kane Evans got 24 and 22 minutes each), but the Warriors need their forwards to come to the party to help out the backline. AFB will be back to his best soon, but he still is going to need help.

The Warriors lacked direction on attack and once again fell back into one out footy. Nathan Brown mentioned in his post-match interview that this one out style was not the game plan, so he needs to figure out why his side keeps falling back into old habits and fix it quick. The Warriors did start playing a more enterprising style in the final 20 minutes, but by then, the game was out of reach. The Warriors missed Reece Walsh here; he can create attacking opportunities even if his pack isn't pulling their weight. The rest of the spine needs to take a page out of his book if they want to succeed this season.

Once again, the Warriors missed tackles are a huge concern, they missed 31 in this match, and I see no signs that it is improving. Many fans have called for the club to move on from defensive coach Justin Morgan, and I'm sorry to say I think they are right. He hasn't been able to get this side to the level they need to be defensively, and a change is needed.

Next up is errors. The Warriors made 10 errors in this match, which may not sound like a lot, but against a team like the Storm, you cannot gift them an extra 10 sets and expect to walk away with a win. The Warriors have shown that they can play error-free football; they just need to get back there before it's too late.

Lastly is injuries; the Warriors have lost Chanel Harris-Tavita for the season after he tore his pec. They also look set to miss Wayde Egan for at least a week after he had a head clash that busted him open and saw him assisted from the field. Losing your starting half and hooker when you are attempting to get into the top-eight is not ideal. However, I think Nathan Brown will bring Sean O'Sullivan back into the halves, and I have my fingers crossed that he gives Taniela Otukolo a chance to debut as there are big wraps on the young hooker. You could also look at moving Walsh back into the halves and RTS to fullback. I am happy with that too, as long as Walsh is on the pitch, I am a happy man.

Warrior of the match

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My Warrior of the match goes to Tohu Harris. There weren't many players that stood out for good reasons, which made selecting Harris easy. As mentioned above, he lead the pack with 84 running metres and also lead the side with tackles, making 51 with only 1 miss. It doesn't matter if the Warriors are playing good or awful; you know that Harris will be there giving 100%. If he could get the rest of the side to play at his consistent level, then the Warriors would be a formidable side to play against.

Warrior to improve

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Well, once again, my Warrior to improve goes to Kodi Nikorima. It was another poor showing from Nikorima; he made errors, threw wayward passes and came up with some terrible last tackle plays. If the Warriors have to rely on Nikorima to get them across the line this season, they are in serious trouble, he just lacks spark, and his kicking game is subpar at best. The injury to CHT will keep him in the 17, but he needs to step up as a senior half if he wants to stick around. I would be looking at making him the No. 14 where he plays his best football; however, injuries will prevent that for the foreseeable future.

Next round thoughts and prediction

Round 15 sees the Warriors make the trip to McDonald Jones Stadium to face the Newcastle Knights. The Knights handed the Warriors their first loss of the season in round 2 with a 20-16 defeat, and they will be a tough opponent once again, especially with Kayln Ponga and Mitchell Pearce both scheduled to return. The Warriors will welcome back Walsh, but with the current injuries, I am unsure what the Warriors lineup will be, but if the Warriors can outmuscle the large Knights pack, then they are halfway there. So I am picking the Warriors to get the win by 8.

Before I go, I just want to cover the rumours that the Warriors are looking at signing Dallin Watene-Zelezniak effective immediately to replace Maumalo. I don't mind this signing if the Bulldogs are paying half of his salary, he can be guilty of making errors, but he runs hard and gives 100%, which is all I ask from the players and will add experience to a backline full of young players. If he does sign on, it will only be as a stop-gap as I still believe the club expects big things from Junior Ratuva when he returns to the club after his current injury. He is a big winger but also has a lot of pace to back it up.

So that was a poor Round 14, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

With CHT and Egan missing some game time, who would you replace them with?
Who was your player of the day?
What are your thoughts on the rumoured signing of Dallin Watene-Zelezniak?
What is your score prediction against the Knights?

NZ Warriors 2021 Mid-Season Review: The good, the bad and the ugly

With the Warriors enjoying a bye in Round 13. I have no match review to write, so like last season. I thought it was the best time to write my mid-season review.

It's fair to say that the first 12 rounds had their fair share of ups and downs for the Warriors and Warriors fans alike. The Warriors have 12 points and currently sit 9th on the ladder with a 5-7 record and a -40 points differential. This season is tight, the Warriors are 2 points outside of the top-eight, but they are also only 2 points above the 14th placed side.  It's still hard to judge the home and away record with the Warriors essentially playing all games away, but they have a 3-3 home record (including their "home" loss to Parramatta in the Brisbane Magic Round) and a 2-3 away record. Coming into this point of the season, I had predicted a 7-5 record, so I wasn't too far off; however, the Warriors definitely let a few games slip.

Keeping in the theme I started a few seasons back, I'm going to break my review into what's been good, what's been bad and what's been downright ugly. So let's get it started with the good.

The Good

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The Warriors lead the competition in set completions with 81%. This shows that they are getting rid of the silly errors that sometimes plague their game (although that has crept back in from time to time). The key for the Warriors moving forward is to keep the completion rate high but also to get themselves into scoring opportunities more often.

On that note, the Warriors have shown glimpses of how dangerous they can be on attack; even though they are 12th in running metres with only 19,572 metres, they are near the top with post-contact metres (4th with 6,963 metres). They sit 10th with linebreaks (54), 13th with tackle-breaks (330) and 8th with Offloads (129). If the Warriors can work on fine-tuning their 5th tackle options, they should be able to get themselves into the top-eight.

New recruits Addin Fonua-Blake and Ben Murdoch-Masila have been leading from the front. AFB was instrumental in getting the Warriors on the front foot, and I think we have seen how important he is for the club due to how lacklustre the front row rotation has been since his injury. However, the good news is that AFB should be back this week, and I can't wait to see him bend the opposition line once again; I expect to see plenty of Reece Walsh running off the big props shoulder waiting for the offload.

BMM has been great for the club, I know I got a bit of pushback when I praised BMM and picked him as one of my players to watch this season, but I think he has lived up to my expectations. He is a strong runner that loves the try line, currently sitting atop the Warriors try-scorers with 6 tries. I would still be starting him if I was in charge, but if Brown wants to use him off the bench, he needs to inject him into the action earlier. 

The last recruit I want to highlight is Reece Walsh. The news that Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was going to leave the club hit me hard, and the news that an 18-year-old was signed to take his place had me concerned. Then I saw his highlight reel and was intrigued before he won me over when he joined the club early and was given his chance. I have not been so excited about a young player since Shaun Johnson exploded onto the scene in 2011. He has only played 6 games for the club, and his stats are already impressive, scoring 4 tries, making 6 linebreaks, 22 tackle breaks, and 8 try assists. He still has work to do defensively as he has been found out of position a few times, but he is still learning, and I'm confident that that side of his game will improve. The future is bright with Walsh, and I have my fingers crossed that the Warriors can keep him around long-term.

So far, my game of the year is the Warriors round 11 30-26 victory over the Wests Tigers. A few other contenders, including the comeback victory over the Raiders, but I think the Tigers match has been the most exciting Warriors game this year. They showed some great attacking phases, including scoring two tries while having a man in the sin-bin. Walsh was having a field day playing a hand in several tries and scoring one himself. They still had plenty of issues on defence, allowing the Tigers to get back into the match and almost steal it at the death, but those edge of your seat moments make the taste of victory that much sweeter.

Lastly, I want to highlight my current Warrior of the season, Tohu Harris. Harris has been beaten in my Warrior of the match many times this season, but he is head and shoulders above the rest of his team when it comes to consistently. In his 11 games, he has scored 3 tries, made 2 line breaks and 6 line break assists and made 11 offloads. He also is averaging 120 running metres a match and has 93% tackle efficiency. You just know he is going to give it 100% out there, and if the rest of the Warriors pack could get closer to his level, then the Warriors will be a dangerous side to face. The news of Harris extending his stay with the Warriors was fantastic, and with RTS exit, I see no better person to take over as Captain.

The Bad

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The Warriors have let several games slip; their position on the ladder could have been different if they hadn't lost three games that they had put themselves in a position to win, they should have beaten the Knights, Sea Eagles and Cowboys in rounds 2, 5 and 12 but due to the following issues, they didn't get the job done.

When AFB got injured, the Warriors front row took a nosedive; they went from bending the opposition line to barely making a dent. AFB was averaging 140 running metres a game, but the rest of the front-rowers is well below that. Kane Evans is the closest (83), followed by Leeson Ah Mau (76), Bunty Afoa (68) and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown (54). I have thrown plenty of criticism at the Warriors halves, but unless they get some decent ball from the big boys upfront, then they're fighting a losing battle. AFB's return will help, but he will need help from the rest of the front-rowers. 

Speaking of the halves, I still have concerns about their game management and 5th tackle options. At times the Warriors look lost on attack with players overrunning their lines; the Warriors kicking game still leaves plenty to be desired with Kodi Nikorima, and Chanel Harris-Tavita not really delivering crisp kicking plays other than the odd pinpoint grubber. As mentioned above, they haven't been helped by their pack, but we need to see them step up after the bye if the Warriors are to stay in the hunt. I still think moving Walsh to the halves and Nikorima to the 14 is the way to turn this side around, but I don't see Nathan Brown making the switch.

Next up, my personal peeve missed tackles. The Warriors are by no means the worst in this category, sitting 5th best with 322 (Broncos are the worst with 445). Im not sure if it is a game plan, but the Warriors edges continue to rush in, creating openings on the outside which puts pressure on the fullback to cover. It's not just the edge defence, though, and I'm not sure if the Warriors need to change their technique or if it's merely an attitude or skill issue, but if they don't improve this area of their game, they will be watching the finals instead of playing in them.

 

Lastly, no games at Mount Smart for the 2nd year running. I know it's hard due to the whole COVID situation, but I just miss getting to live games, and now, with the Trans-Tasman bubble open, I wish I had the money to fly over to Oz and watch some games. The Warriors have decided to remain in Australia for the rest of the season, which I understand. However, I still have my fingers crossed that the Warriors do manage to bring a few games back across the ditch for the local fans desperate to not only see their team live again but also allow us the chance to give RTS the farewell he deserves. No disrespect to the Warriors fans in Australia, you guys have been amazing travelling around to support the side, but at times in the past two years, it feels like the fans in NZ have been forgotten. However, I can't wait for the first game back at Mount Smart; it will be electric.

And now all that's left is the ugly.

The Ugly

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Firstly, round 7's 42-20 loss to the Storm was, for me, the Warriors worst display of the 2021 season. The Warriors barely fired a shot in the first half, with the Storm essentially just having a training run, pushing out to a 26-4 lead at halftime. The Warriors did show some fight in the 2nd half with a handful of tries, but it too little too late. The Storm are one of the best sides in the competition, and the Warriors always struggle in this annual clash on Anzac day, but this was a rude reminder of how bad the Warriors can be if they don't show up with the right attitude.

My last ugly is the Warriors mental lapses. Win or lose, the one constant we have seen this year with the Warriors is that there will always be a 20-minute patch where the Warriors just fall apart. Sometimes it comes in the form of a slow start or a poor finish, but it is just a momentum killer that the Warriors need to eliminate from their game. I'm unsure if it is a fitness or confidence issue, but getting rid of the lapses will see the Warriors win more games than they lose, so I have my fingers crossed it has been addressed and worked on during the bye week.

The season so far and what's next

Overall, I would have liked the Warriors to be sitting in the eight at this point of the season but just outside of it isn't that bad. Looking at the rest of the draw, the Warriors still have a strong chance of making the eight but will need to start stringing some wins together. Looking at the 12 games they have remaining, they only have three against the top four sides (Storm, Panthers and Rabbitohs), but the rest are winnable. We are currently heading into the Warriors favourite time of year with the State of Origin period starting now, so it's as good a time as any for the Warriors to start getting those wins.

Next Rounds' thoughts and prediction

Round 14 sees the Warriors head back to their makeshift home on the Central Coast to face the Storm in what will be a tough encounter. The Storm may make the trip minus a few players due to suspension and Origin, but that does not make them any less dangerous. We have already seen them dominate sides with their entire spine missing. The Warriors should welcome back AFB and be well rested after the bye but will have to play the match without Reece Walsh, who is suspended. It will be a tough ask, but the Warriors will put up a better fight than they did in round 7, but I am still predicting a Storm win by 16.

So that was my mid-season review, and as usual, I will leave you with some questions.

Who has been your player of the year to date?
Who is your player that needs to improve the most?
Where do you see the Warriors finishing on the ladder?
What are your best and worst games for the season to date?
What is your score prediction for Round 14 against the Storm?